Australia not prepared to handle threat of new pandemic, experts warn

Australia isn’t ready for a new pandemic, top epidemiologists have warned, saying it’s not a matter of if, but when, another contagion will strike — and it will be sooner than we expect.

Five years on from the beginning of the Covid pandemic, Australia is no better prepared to respond to the threat of another devastating outbreak, top epidemiologists say.

Adrian Esterman and Catherine Bennett – who both became recognised faces as they helped Australians navigate the uncertain times of 2020 and beyond – say the nation urgently requires an independent Centre for Disease Control (CDC) which was promised by the federal government but is not yet up and running.

The leading epidemiologists also warned that an overwhelming sense of “Covid fatigue” throughout the community had resulted in governments putting their pandemic preparedness on the backburner.

It comes as Australia nervously watches on as the H5N1 Avian Flu spreads across the world, with hundreds of humans having contracted the virus after coming into contact with – or eating – an infected animal.

Professor Adrian Esterman doesn’t believe Australia is in a better position to respond to new threats. Picture: David Mariuz

Australia is nervously watching on as the H5N1 Avian Flu spreads across the world. Picture: Getty Images

Esterman – a professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of South Australia – said although state and federal governments could take lessons from the mistakes of Covid, he didn’t believe Australia was in a better position to respond to new threats.

“Am I confident our governments will be able to handle it (a future pandemic), no. They’re certainly not doing it now,” he said.

“We need to make our governments aware that it’s not a matter of if another pandemic comes along, it’s a when and there’s a reasonably high chance that it will happen in the next 10 years so we really need to get our fingers out and start, not just planning for it, but actually acting.”

Professor Catherine Bennett says Australia isn’t ready to handle a new pandemic.

Professor Bennett says we may be worse off in some ways when a new pandemic strikes.

In 2023, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced an independent inquiry into Australia’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic. That review was criticised after its scope only focused on the Commonwealth’s handling of the crisis, rather than how each state and territory responded.

The report found that government needed to rebuild trust with the public, and warned many of the measures during Covid-19 were unlikely to again be accepted by the population. It recommended a future public health emergency response should consider “fairness and proportionality when implementing and enforcing restrictive measures”.

Professor Bennett – who sat on the inquiry’s three-person panel – echoed concerns that Australia wasn’t ready.

“In fact we might be worse off in some regards,” she said.

Professor Brendan Crabb says we can’t rely on the once ‘super reliable US to guide the global health response’.

How future governments plan to respond to future pandemics will be hampered by a range of factors, Professor Bennett said, including a high turnover of healthcare workers due to burnout, a disinvestment in health but also a general sentiment of distrust in authority.

Burnet Institute director and CEO Brendan Crabb said while the world was caught offguard by Covid, the next pandemic won’t be as shocking – although it isn’t obvious that we’re better prepared for that challenge.

Professor Crabb said one of the biggest challenges will be how the US – typically referred to as the “leader in global health” – responds to public health emergencies under the Trump administration.

“While it’s unclear as to how that’s all to play out, it’s very concerning. The rest of the world has to get its act together to say we can’t rely on the once super reliable US to guide the global health response,” he said.

Professor Crabb says we need to be ready as a lockdown is always possible. Picture: Getty Images

While Victoria now has the capability to manufacture vaccines locally, Professor Crabb said the nation must be prepared, warning that future governments wouldn’t have the ability to impose such tough restrictions again.

“The bar will be higher for public health action next time. It will be and it should be. The aim is no disruption and no disease, so if we’re organised we should be able to have little disruption but the last time we weren’t organised at all. We were caught with our pants down,” he said.

“We have to get our skates on to be ready. We can have this plan to not lock down and not take drastic action, but (to quote) Mike Tyson ‘you can have a plan until you get punched on the nose’.

“If the next pandemic kills three per cent of children, not three per cent of older people, I can tell you we will lock down in an instant.”

While Victoria now has the capability to manufacture vaccines locally, Professor Crabb said the nation must be prepared. Picture: AFP

The single-biggest priority, according to all three experts, is for a Centre for Disease Control (CDC) to be up-and-running. At the last election federal Labor promised to establish the facility that would manage future disease outbreaks “from early 2024”.

Professor Bennett said a dedicated Australian centre would be a “national asset” provided that it was entirely independent of government.

“One of the biggest things we were missing during Covid was a national co-ordinating entity,” she said.

Federal Health Minister Mark Butler said the independent Australian Centre for Disease Control would be established by 1 January 2026.

“Before we came into government Australia was the only OECD country without a CDC equivalent and the former government had not led a national pandemic drill for 12 years,” he said.

Mr Butler said the interim Australian CDC had put the country on a “much stronger footing to respond to future public health threats”.

A Victorian government spokeswoman said it had invested $400m for a new Australian Institute for Infectious Diseases to support researchers to develop treatments for infectious diseases, while also partnering with Moderna and BioNTech to produce vaccines locally.

She said those organisations will play a critical role in helping to shape future pandemic preparedness globally.

“Since 2020, we have transformed how we identify, prepare and respond to public health threats, including establishing our nine Local Public Health Units – to use local knowledge to deliver the right health protection response for specific communities,” she said.

Originally published as Australia not prepared to handle threat of new pandemic, experts warn