US election 2024: First exit poll numbers released

The first exit poll numbers of the election are here, giving us an insight into the mindset of American voters.

The first exit poll numbers of the 2024 US election are here, giving us an insight into the mindset of American voters.

Given how tight the battle between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is, it’s highly unlikely the outcome of the election will be known today.

But, we do have the preliminary results from this year’s exit polls – surveys conducted on voters that ask them 20 to 25 questions including who they voted for, what their political opinions are and what issues mattered most to them this election. As a caveat, these findings will likely shift throughout election night as more interviews are conducted and more votes are counted, and should be treated as estimates.

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The scope of the polls, CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy explained, make them “a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views in this year’s election”.

“And their findings will eventually be weighted against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the elections themselves.”

Thus far, the numbers indicate an extremely dissatisfied electorate. Among those surveyed, President Joe Biden has an approval rating of just 41 per cent, with sky-high disapproval of 58 per cent.

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump. Picture: AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. Picture: Brendan Smialowski/AFP

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More broadly, only 7 per cent of respondents said they were “enthusiastic” about the state of the country, with a further 19 per cent “satisfied”. By contrast, a whopping 43 per cent were “dissatisfied” and 29 per cent were “angry”.

“When you see current voters saying by a three-to-one margin that they’re dissatisfied with the country, I’ve got to say, in conventional terms, it would be a miracle if Kamala Harris could win with that type of headwind,” one of CNN’s senior anchors and political analysts, Chris Wallace, said.

“If she is able to overcome those numbers and still win this election, then she has done a remarkable job of separating herself and framing herself as the solution rather than part of the problem.”

A touch more positive was the result that 61 per cent of people thought America’s best days were still ahead, while 34 per cent felt they were in the past.

In terms of the candidates themselves, eight in 10 voters said they picked theirs sometime before September. Fewer than 1 in 10, on the other hand, decided in the past week.

Forty-seven per cent of voters so far believe that Mr Trump is “too extreme”; by contrast, 36 per cent felt that way about Ms Harris.

To handle a crisis, 51 per cent said they’d trust Mr Trump more than Ms Harris (47 per cent).

The prospect of Mr Trump once again being elected is “scary” for 36 per cent of voters. Twenty-six per cent said they felt “optimistic”, 22 per cent “excited”, and 14 per cent “concerned”. The same emotions for if Ms Harris is elected were 28 per cent, 26 per cent, 23 per cent and 20 per cent respectively.

Across the nation, about three-quarters of voters (roughly 8 in 10 of Mr Trump’s voters and two-thirds of Ms Harris’ voters) said their vote was mainly in support of their candidate, rather than being motivated to vote against their opponent.

As for the issues on voters’ minds, initial results of CNN’s exit poll found that one-third were most concerned for the state of democracy, while three in 10 were worried about the economy.

Abortion and immigration followed, while fewer than 5 per cent said foreign policy was their top issue.

Originally published as US election 2024: First exit poll numbers released