Toowoomba votes: YouGov MRP model predicts LNP vote in Groom to fall below 40 per cent, Garth Hamilton still tipped to return

The final modelling before Saturday’s election has spelled bad news for Garth Hamilton as challenger Suzie Holt also faces a major setback.

Groom MP LNP candidate Garth Hamilton arrives to cast his vote in the federal election at Centenary Heights State High School, Saturday, May 21, 2022. Picture: Kevin Farmer

Garth Hamilton and the LNP could suffer a primary vote total of below 40 per cent in Groom on Saturday, if results for the latest YouGov MRP models are accurate.

The final projection before the May 3 election puts the Coalition’s first preference vote at 38.5 per cent, with a low mark of 35 and a high of 41.

All of these figures are below the 43.7 per cent Mr Hamilton secured at the 2022 election, which itself was a significant drop from 2019.

However, the LNP is still modelled to win the seat 57-43 — but this time against Labor rather than highly-backed independent Suzie Holt.

The new model, which is based on the results of interviews with 10,000 voters across Australia throughout April that are then stratified depending on the types of voters in each electorate, also shows potential primary boosts for Ms Holt and fellow independent Kirstie Smolenski.

The independent vote share, which appears to be the hardest to pin down, has been projected as 17.3 per cent — with a high of potentially 23 but a low of just 12.

Ms Holt, who took just eight per cent of the vote in 2022 but managed to finish second on preferences, is hoping to overcome a more adversarial field to overtake Mr Hamilton.

Labor’s vote share looks to have rebounded again, with candidate Richard Edwards tipped to poll at 19.7 per cent (16.4 per cent low, 23.1 per cent high).

In what could be a decisive element on Saturday, One Nation’s Rebecca Konz is set to enjoy a big boost at 13.1 per cent.

Modelling for Groom in YouGov MRP in the 2025 federal election.

One Nation’s preferences broke 53-47 to Ms Holt in 2022, however the party’s latest how-to-vote card deal with the LNP that preferences Mr Hamilton over the independents could reverse that trend.

The Greens’ Alyce Nelligan is modelled to poll at 6.4 per cent.

Nationally, Labor is projected to win 84 seats, with the Coalition set for potentially just 47 seats — its lowest return since 1946.

Originally published as Toowoomba votes: YouGov MRP model predicts LNP vote in Groom to fall below 40 per cent, Garth Hamilton still tipped to return