Tasmania state election: Sportsbet tips Labor to win over Liberals

A leading Tassie bookmaker has expressed surprise at betting odds for this month’s state election, with online gaming giant Sportsbet putting Labor a $1.30 favourite to win. FULL ODDS + ANALYSIS >>

A leading Tasmanian bookmaker has expressed surprise at recently released betting odds for next month’s state election, with online gaming giant Sportsbet installing the Labor opposition a piping-hot $1.30 favourite to win government.

The Sportsbet market, which pays on the party that supplies the Premier after the 19 July poll, lists the incumbent Liberals at long $3.60 odds, with the Greens priced at $36, and any other outcome paying $41.

President of the Tasmanian Bookmakers Association, Robin Wilson, said he had expected near identical prices for the two major parties with just under three weeks of campaigning until election day, claiming the Liberals were currently being quoted “a mile over the odds”.

“They should be so much closer together, in my opinion, because I don’t think there’s anything in it myself,” Mr Wilson said.

“The Liberals government at $3.60, that’s huge.

“Obviously Sportsbet think that the Liberal government is very unpopular, but I just think they’re misreading it.

“I’d have the Liberals at $1.90, and Labor probably at $2.10.”

Labor leader Dean Winter and Labor member for Clark Josh Willie. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

While the Jeremy Rockliff-led Liberals are seeking a fifth-consecutive election win on July 19 — following victories in 2014, 2018, 2021, and 2024 – Labor are hoping for Dean Winter-piloted revival after more than a decade on the political sidelines.

With pre-polling opening on Monday at a number of booths across the state, and three weeks to go until election day, Mr Wilson said there was plenty of time for betting markets to fluctuate as punters wagered a prediction on Tasmania’s future parliamentary makeup.

One of just a handful of on-course bookies still working at Tasmanian race tracks, Mr Wilson said experience told him that the Liberal Party would hang on to the government benches, but again fail to achieve an outright victory.

“I reckon it will be a minority government again, but think they’ll probably hang on,” he said.

“And I think there’s a big chance that the Liberal price will shorten.

“But that obviously depends on how much business the bookies do, and it’s hard to imagine anyone betting thousands of dollars on the Tasmanian election.

“That’s the only way that the odds will shorten, because Sportsbet, for example, just holds huge amounts of money.”

Originally published as Tasmania state election: Sportsbet tips Labor to win over Liberals