Tasmania population: Demographer says ABS underestimated by 30K

A Tasmanian demographer says the ABS underestimated the island state’s population by about 30,000 between the two most recent censuses. Here’s why that could be a problem.

A Tasmanian demographer has identified that the Australia Bureau of Statistics has underestimated Tasmania’s population since the 2016 Census. As a result the state may not have received the funding it deserved and was required to deliver public services.

She is supported in this by State Development Minister Guy Barnett, who said the finding in last year’s census that there were 569,800 residents of Tasmania was a “major revision” upwards of previous estimates.

On August 24, Hobart researcher Dr Lisa Denny took to social media to say there were “many questions to be answered” after July’s release of official figures showing the population grew 9.7 per cent between the 2016–2021 censuses, not the 4.6 per cent forecast by the ABS.

In between censuses, the ABS calculates an “estimated resident population” (ERP) each quarter, with the estimates “rebased” upon release of the official census data every five years.

Hobart demographer Dr Lisa Denny. Picture: Dr Lisa Denny/ UTAS

The difference between the rebased ERP (i.e. that informed by the census) and the quarterly estimate (known as unrebased ERP) is the “intercensal difference” and it is that figure which has Dr Denny worried.

She told the Mercury her figures appeared to show the ABS had underestimated Tasmania’s population by about 30,000.

The discrepancy could have “quite significant implications regarding the provision of housing, infrastructure and services, and the funding the state receives on a per capita basis,” Dr Denny said.

“If we’ve been undercounted, we haven’t been getting the funding we need.”

Dr Denny theorised that the abolition of the ‘departure cards’ filled in by residents and migrants leaving the country, sometimes permanently, in 2017 meant it was harder for the ABS to track outflows from Australia.

Graphs produced by Hobart demographer Dr Lisa Denny, which she says shows the Australia Bureau of Statistics hasn't been properly estimating Tasmania's growth between censuses. Picture: Dr Lisa Denny

She also believed the numbers could have been thrown out by waves of people updating their addresses with Medicare, in some cases for the first time in years, during the rollout of the vaccination program.

“There’s little incentive to change your address if you don’t see a doctor, young people don’t see doctors generally, and many people can’t get appointments,” Dr Denny said.

“Are we missing interstate migration movements because people don’t or cant see a doctor?

“I suspect those two issues play a big role.”

Mr Barnett said the state government was pleased with the figures.

“We set... a bold and ambitious target to increase the state’s population to 650,000 by 2050, and it is clear that our plan is working with an increase of 56,100 persons since March 2014.

“In fact, we exceeded our initial 2020 target of 530,000 people well in advance.

“We’re actually on track to exceed our 2030 population target of 570,000 as early as this year.

“These statistics confirm what we already know – that Tasmania is an attractive choice for people looking to live, work and raise a family with an economy that continues to perform strongly, with historically low unemployment.”

For its part, the ABS said it was unable to comment on Dr Denny’s findings without knowing her exact methodology and the assumptions she used.

The Gedult family, Kim, Angelo and Celine, are planning on relocating to southeast Tasmania from Brisbane for a better lifestyle and cheaper home. Picture: Supplied

“I didn’t use a methodology – I just plotted their data in a spreadsheet,” Dr Denny said.

One of the thousands of new residents being drawn to Tasmania is Brisbane woman Kim Gedult, who said she would be relocating to the state’s southeast with her husband, young daughter and two dogs in the coming months.

“Having travelled to Tasmania for a family trip, we fell inlove with its untouched beauty, cooler climate and laid back style of living,” she told the Mercury.

“We have always dreamt of a more quiet lifestyle. Tasmania is the perfect place to raise children and so we are looking to make the move.

“My husband is looking at working in Hobart and I work from home.”

She described her family’s current lifestyle in Brisbane as “very busy and stressful”

“Relocating to Tasmania will mean some financial freedom,” she said.

“Property in Tasmania is much more affordable than where we live. The move will mean we can attain the lifestyle we want at a more affordable price.”

Originally published as Tasmania population: Demographer says ABS underestimated by 30K