From blue-collar to $1m by 2028: Future median prices for Tasmanian suburbs revealed

These under the radar suburbs recorded higher growth than Hobart’s prestigious areas – where might they sit five years from now? Find out here.

No.10 Wallace St, Bridgewater is for sale by expressions of interest (Raine & Horne).

Bellerive, West Hobart, Sandy Bay, Battery Point: these suburbs have nothing on Bridgewater.

New PropTrack data shows that over the past five years, 10 suburbs located outside of Hobart’s inner-city recorded the highest percentage of median home value growth.

And this was led by Bridgewater, with its eye-watering 134 per cent increase.

This northern suburb was not alone in seeing prices double, with New Norfolk, Primrose Sands, Risdon Vale and Chigwell each recording between 101 per cent and 119 per cent growth.

The next best areas – Warrane, Dodges Ferry, Midway Point, Claremont and Glenorchy – had an 81 to 99 per cent uptick.

If median prices in these suburbs continue to grow for the next five years at the same pace that they have for the past five, nine out of the 10 would push past a $1m median home value in 2028.

That would take Bridgewater to $1.124m, New Norfolk to $1.008m and Primrose Sands to $1.107m.

Real Estate Institute of Tasmania statistics show Bridgewater set a record last year with a median house price of $500,000. As recently as 2016, it was just $178,000.

If greater Hobart continued to grow at the pace of the past five years, median prices would increase from $670,000 to $1.175m. In regional Tasmania, the adjustment would be from a $500,000 median to $909,000.

PropTrack economist Angus Moore said greater Hobart and Tasmanian regional property performed “extremely well” just before and during the pandemic.

PropTrack economist Angus Moore. Picture: File

“Around Australia, it was fairly uncommon to see suburbs with more than 100 per cent growth in just five years, certainly not as many as there were in greater Hobart,” he said.

“Hobart used to be an affordable city, but it has become very popular, and prices have risen quickly.

“Tasmanian prices doubling or more than doubling through the pandemic – like in Bridgewater – was unusual, and speaks to just how big the shifts were.”

Given the change in the market and buyer borrowing capacities, Harcourts Signature property representative Mark Brudenell said there was an “absolute zero chance” that the market as a whole will mirror the past five years.

Nick Machin, Mark Brudenell and Alex Muller from Harcourts Signature

“During the pandemic, all the so-called experts predicted doom and gloom and property prices to be reduced by as much as 33 per cent,” he said.

“If they were financial advisers, then there would be hell to pay.

“What happened was the complete opposite, with real estate prices exceeding everyone’s expectations.

“There will be suburbs that continue to grow, but it should be seen that we are entering into what was known as a normal market for many years.”

Mr Brudenell said Bridgewater’s place at the top of the chart should not come as a surprise.

He described it as a rapidly changing area where the balance had shifted from 100 per cent social houses to a suburb where privately owned homes outweigh social housing.

“With investment in the Bridgewater Bridge, schools and other infrastructure, the suburb will continue to be a go-to area for those seeking to enter the property market,” he said.

No.22 Salier St, Bridgewater is listed with Harcourts, it is priced between $480,000-$530,000. Picture: File

“Some will stay there for a long time, some will use it as a stepping stone to their next property.

“The only thing that has really changed is property value growth, which has returned to normal levels.

“Property should be seen as a longer term investment, not an overnight investment.”

No.28 Barton Crs, Bridgewater sold in May for $450,000 (Harcourts Signature).

Amid a market with decreasing prices and fewer sales, Mr Moore said it was fair to assume the next five years of Hobart home prices would not be a boom period.

“For context, nationally, 2021 alone was the third fastest year of growth since 1880,” he said.

“We are unlikely to repeat that again in the near term.”

Mr Moore said a takeaway from the data was that no matter where people bought five years ago in Hobart, they would be sitting on a substantial gain in home equity.

“For current buyers, this data might provide insight into how things have performed and what has been important to buyers over the past five years,” he said.

– In partnership with PropTrack.

Originally published as From blue-collar to $1m by 2028: Future median prices for Tasmanian suburbs revealed