David Killick Tasmanian political analysis: Healthy mistrust of a poisoned chalice

Some time over the next few days Tasmania will get a new health minister. It probably won’t be decided by a game of pass the parcel in state Cabinet – because that’s a really terrible way for someone to have to unwrap a poisoned chalice, David Killick writes.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff at Wrest Point. Picture: Chris Kidd

Some time over the next few days Tasmania will get a new health minister.

It probably won’t be decided by a game of pass the parcel in state Cabinet – because that’s a really terrible way for someone to have to unwrap a poisoned chalice.

Given the seemingly intractable problems in the Tasmanian health system over the past decade or more, it’s hard to imagine people elbowing each other out of the way for the job.

Michael Ferguson was the Liberal’s first health minister, bringing his trademark undeniable optimism to the state’s most demanding gig for the first five years of government.

Sarah Courtney stepped up in July 2019. She lasted less than two years. Jeremy Rockliff, two years, two months and one day.

Although a lot of money and a lot of effort in health is slowly beginning to show dividends, health is a tough gig, although a quick search of the Mercury archives reveals no trace yet of the headline: “Everything going really well in the Tasmanian health system”.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff at Wrest Point. Picture: Chris Kidd

Keen watchers of politics will be divining the message in the cabinet that emerges from this reshuffle — is the state’s biggest portfolio a punishment or a reward?

Will Mr Rockliff take the opportunity to move Racing Minister Madeleine Ogilvie away from the racetrack or Police, Fire and Emergency Services Minister Felix Ellis further from the flames.

Or might maybe relieve Nic Street of local government now that the Premier has ruled out mergers and done some ad hoc planning reform on his behalf.

There are other contenders, although it is difficult to picture Guy Barnett coming up with something to match slogans like “Wood is good” or “Water is liquid gold” in Health or prising open Elise Archer’s iron grip on Attorney-General and Justice.

Whatever the new Cabinet looks like, it’s a fair bet everyone will be able to respond to just about any crisis with: “Well, I wasn’t the minister when that decision was taken/not taken/completely buggered up.”

Will any of this stick anyway? This will be the fifth cabinet reshuffle in the past two years and two months. That’s one every 5.2 months.

With that average, this new line up should just about make Christmas.

Originally published as David Killick Tasmanian political analysis: Healthy mistrust of a poisoned chalice