Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is Premier Peter Malinauskas’s biggest weakness in Black by-election to replace David Speirs

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s tin-eared purchase of a $4.3m mansion will rankle struggling mortgage-belt voters in David Speirs’ former seat of Black, Paul Starick writes.

The stunning saga of David Speirs’ downfall from the Liberal leadership to an alleged drug supplier obscured a political talent now worth remarking upon.

Mr Speirs, whatever his later failings in the top job, knew how to win a marginal seat against the tide at the 2022 state election. When his Liberal neighbours lost, Mr Speirs held on in the southwestern Adelaide seat of Black.

Crucially, he knew the importance of a suburb like Hallett Cove, the largest in Black, where he and his parents moved in 2002 when immigrating from Scotland.

Hallett Cove is a snapshot of the suburbs that decide elections, both at a state and federal level.

This is a slice of Middle Australia, that is shuddering under a cost-of-living crisis.

This is the key reason why the Malinauskas juggernaut might hit an unexpected hurdle at a November 16 by-election to replace Mr Speirs.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has done his Labor colleague no favours at all with his tin-eared purchase of a $4.3m mansion on NSW’s Central Coast.

The luxury clifftop home bought by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

In mortgage-belt suburbs like Hallett Cove, hard-pressed homeowners would love to have a spare million or two to splurge on a luxury home.

With a federal election expected by May, it’s astounding that Mr Albanese would give the impression he’s got one eye on political retirement rather than being firmly fixed on easing the cost-of-living crisis.

There is more than a sense that the Albanese government is flailing about, in search of an economic strategy, yet also strangely becalmed and devoid of momentum, teetering on the precipice of disaster.

Inside the home bought by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Conversely, Premier Peter Malinauskas has yet to experience the inevitable testing period when voters turn against a government, perhaps irretrievably.

This is despite failing to deliver, thus far, on the central promise that won him power in 2022 – to fix the ramping crisis.

Yet Mr Malinauskas has been politically blessed by a Liberal Party arguably at its lowest ebb since the Liberal Movement split of the mid-1970s.

This makes Labor the favourite to win the Black by-election, even if this would mean defying history – again.

Labor in March secured a historic by-election victory in another former Liberal leader’s seat – Dunstan, previously held by Steven Marshall with a 0.5 per cent margin.

It was the first time a government-backed candidate had won an Opposition-held seat in a by-election in more than 116 years.

Labor secured just 32.1 per cent of primary votes but won on the back of preferences from the Greens, which attracted 19.2 per cent of the primary vote.

(L-R) Premier Peter Malinauskas, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles at the 2024 AFL Grand Final breakfast. Picture: AFL Photos / Wayne Taylor

In Black at the 2022 state election, Mr Speirs captured 50.1 per cent of primary votes, Labor’s Alex Dighton 38.1 per cent (he is standing again at the November by-election) and the Greens 11.8 per cent. The post-election Liberal margin was 2.7 per cent.

Voters will go to the polls to replace Mr Speirs in Black the day after he faces court on drugs charges for the first time.

Greens preferences are unlikely to play the decisive role they did in Dunstan.

The November 16 by-election date is a day after Mr Speirs’ first appearance date of November 15 at Christies Beach Magistrates Court.

He has vowed he will fight to clear his name of all allegations. The political impact on the by-election is an open question.

Holdfast Bay mayor and Black Liberal candidate Amanda Wilson with Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia. Picture: Brett Hartwig

Labor has tried to paint Liberal candidate and Holdfast Bay mayor Amanda Wilson as out of touch with Hallett Cove, because her council area does not extend that far south.

“We have a candidate who lives in the seat of Black … They understand where Hallett Cove is – they don’t need to get out the street directory,” Premier Peter Malinauskas said in parliament on Thursday.

But Labor has exposed its biggest weakness by trying to paint Ms Wilson as a silvertail from Glenelg who is out of touch with suburban Hallett Cove.

This is the stain on the ALP brand from the Albanese government, which seems unable to deal with the simmering anger at the cost-of-living crisis gripping the suburbs.

Originally published as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is Premier Peter Malinauskas’s biggest weakness in Black by-election to replace David Speirs