What’s coming: Day-to-day breakdown of ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s aftermath

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred might have been downgraded to a tropical low but SEQ residents are being warned to expect days of heavy rainfall leading to major flooding. See our breakdown.

South East Queensland is being warned to brace for heavy rainfalls, flash flooding and riverine flooding as Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred moves westerly over the next 12-24 hours.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred downgraded to a tropical low at 6am this morning and it has been moving slowly into Bribie Island since.

Alfred is yet to hit the coast, still stalling up near Bribie Island. It is expected to move west and cross the mainland coast between Maroochydore and Caboolture later today.

Sky News Weather Bureau forecaster Alison Osborne said ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred is quite large in scale in terms of cloud cover.

“From the centre of the system out to the furthest cloud bands is 400km, so quite big geographically,” she said.

Ms Osborne said the hardest hit areas are likely to be north of Brisbane.

“So from now until the end of the weekend, the area that is looking likely to receive the heaviest falls will mostly be over the northernmost area of the Sunshine Coast and the southern Wide Bay-Burnett,” she said.

“So areas like Rainbow Beach, Tin Can Bay, and out towards the hinterland could see 24-hour totals over 500mm.

“For Brisbane, Ipswich, Sunshine Coast, and Gympie are likely to see 24-hour totals between 120 to 200mm, while we can’t rule out up to 400mm in some isolated pockets around there as well.”

Ms Osborne added that southeast Queensland is likely to see several days of rainfall into the middle of next week.

“In terms of the heavier range, the rainfall should ease back by Monday, but it’s not going to be completely dry until the middle of the week,” she said.

Lizzy Burke outside her Elanora home after a tree went through the roof, pictured with dog Roy. Picture: Adam Head

SATURDAY

Ms Osborne said the system was forecast to adopt a westerly track over the next 12 to 14 hours.

“That heavy rain which is currently more focused around the Gold Coast in the Northern Rivers, will intensify the rain from this evening over Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast and those surrounding areas,” she said.

“What we are looking at is the ongoing threat of intense and heavy rainfall rates through to Sunday across the southern part of the Wide Bay, most of the southeast particularly like Brisbane to Brisbane hinterland.”

Ms Osborne said people in Brisbane will notice the change soon.

“For Brisbane you will notice an escalation of some winds over the next few hours and then in terms of the rain increasing there will be a gradual build from this afternoon and then it’s going to remain heavy until at least midday tomorrow, if not a bit later,” she said.

Ex-TC Alfred caused major damage to a roof on a building in Labrador. Picture: NewsWire/Tertius Pickard

SUNDAY

Ms Osborne said the worst rain over the next 24 hours was across Brisbane, Sunshine Coast and the surrounding areas.

“There’s still a weather warning in place for heavy rainfall and flash flooding but there’s still that risk of that high-end more intense rainfall and that is still inclusive of Brisbane, Ipswich and the Sunshine Coast so we could see 300 to 400mm in 24 hours for those areas,” she said.

“The worst is definitely yet to come for those regions.”

Ms Osborne said Toowoomba would also feel the wrath of the rain tomorrow.

“In terms of the heavy rain over the next 24 to 48 hours further south (near Gold Coast), it’s looking lighter than it has been but still up to 120 to 200mm in 24 hours.”

Payton Petersen from Tweed looks at all the foam around Snapper Rocks. Picture: Adam Head

FROM MONDAY

Ms Osborne said through to Monday there will be the remnants of ex-tropical Cyclone Alfred which will drag the moisture and heavy rain over the border of northern inland New South Wales.

“What that will do for the southeast Queensland coast is that it’s not looking too windy from Monday however expect just like grey skies and like a lot more showers throughout Monday and Tuesday,” she said.

“Probably not seeing decent sunshine until about Wednesday once that kicks in.”