‘Short and intense’: South East Qld wet season looms despite El Nino
South East Queensland will experience a monsoon season despite an El Nino declaration, while northern regions will swelter with summer temperatures four times above average.
South East Queensland can expect a usual monsoon season despite the recent declaration of an El Nino event, a senior climatologist says.
The Bureau of Meteorology says the summer storm season will mostly remain the same, and an El Nino event will not automatically equate to dry, warm weather conditions.
Senior Hydrologist with the Bureau’s climate services Masoud Edraki said it was quite common for El Nino years to included widespread rainfall events.
Drought can happen during El Nino. It usually is considered to be clear skies, reduced rainfall over eastern Australia, but there have been examples of widespread rainfall in past El Nino’s similar to what we see this year,” he said.
“People should be reminded that El Nino is a general pattern of what we expect to happen but he long range forecasting is more up to date information.”
Mr Edraki said the IOD usually broke down as monsoon season kicked off, which was expected to be slightly delayed this year, meaning the IOD would stay longer.
But it won’t mean less rain for Queenslanders, with the South East predicted to experience a normal wet season, according to the Bureau’s December-February long range forecasting.
Far North and western areas will see slightly less than average rainfall due to El Nino however, when rainfall does occur it is expected to be short and intense.
“The forecast is unusually dry conditions in north, but once you come south that chance decreased,” Mr Edraki said.
“Just South East will be rainy the rest of Queensland will be drier than usual.
“Temperature wise, maximum and minimum temperatures will be more extreme.
“Particularly for northern Queensland, it will be three to four times as likely hotter than usual, or unusually warm.”
Despite chances of above median rainfall remaining very low in north tropical Queensland, the area is still forecast to receive between 300-1200mm over a three-month period.
The South East is forecast to receive only 200mm.
The Bureau this week released its climate driver update which forecasts El Nino persisting into April 2024.
Warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, cloud, wind and pressure patterns remain consistent with moderately strong El Nino conditions. Climate modelling indicates some further warming of the central to eastern Pacific with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event also tracking at strong levels.
The Bureau says Australia’s climate has warmed by 1.48 ± 0.23C since national records began in 1910, leading to an increase in extreme heat and fire conditions.
Partly cloudy conditions are expected across South East Queensland this week, with widespread thunderstorms building from Monday afternoon and 25mm of rainfall expected to lash Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast on Tuesday.
