Qld weather: Experts predict cyclone could develop in Coral Sea next week

Experts are predicting a late-season cyclone could develop off Queensland next week.

A late-season cyclone could develop off Queensland next week.

The US-based Global Forecast System (GFS) has predicted a possible cyclone to form in the Coral Sea by the middle of next week.

The threat was first revealed by Brisbane Weather, an amateur forecasting service with more than 100,000 Facebook followers, and it’s not being ruled out by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Brisbane Weather’s David Taylor, who has predicted weather events including correct cyclone paths, said the GFS has the system forming within days and ‘is something to keep a close eye on’.

He said modelling showed the potential Category 3 cyclone could cross the coast near Cairns or Townsville by next Saturday.

“From here, I will be watching the next model run to see if it holds … which this should,” Mr Taylor posted.

The US-based Global Forecast System (GFS) has predicted a possible cyclone to form in the Coral Sea by the middle of next week.

At 2.30pm Friday, the Bureau of Meteorology updated their Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook, saying the likelihood of a system being a tropical cyclone on Monday was five to 20 per cent.

“An active trough with areas of thunderstorm activity extends from eastern Papua New Guinea towards the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu,” the Bureau’s official outlook reads.

“A tropical low may form on this trough over the weekend, either in or east of the Eastern Region.

“There is some uncertainty with the location and movement of this system, however the likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the northern or eastern Coral Sea will increase next week.”

BOM forecaster Helen Kirkup said it was far too early to predict a cyclone although it was “not completely out of the question”.

She said GFS modelling suggested a tropical low could develop in the Coral Sea by Wednesday but it would be ‘well and truly offshore’ from the Queensland coast.

“There’s absolutely no concern at this stage but we’re obviously constantly watching these things,” she said.

Ms Kirkup said the BOM based its cyclone forecasts on four major weather models.

“When things really start lining up is when you can have a lot more confidence that something’s really going to happen,” she said.