Qld cyclone season: Category 6 storms a future prospect that the state isn’t ready for, experts say

Queensland’s coastline will be in the firing line of destructive “Category 6” cyclones in the near future, an expert says, yet for all our experience in handling major weather events, these monsters will expose how unprepared we really are.

This NOAA/NASA handout photo shows Tropical Cyclone Debbie as a Category 4 system in 2017 Picture: AFP PHOTO

Queensland’s coastline could be home to destructive “Category 6” cyclones in the near future and could be largely unprepared, experts say.

The Bureau of Meteorology has warned rising Coral Sea temperatures could bring more intense cyclones to Queensland shores.

 Central Queensland University professor of environmental science Stephen Turton said after a “respite” for much of the state, it was only a matter of time before a high-intensity system hit the coastline.

“What is happening globally, as we saw with Hurricane Milton, is we’re seeing much faster rates of intensification than we might have seen 50 years ago,” he said.

“Above-average sea surface temperatures in the Northwest Coral Sea, but also in the Gulf of Carpentaria, have already been forecast for this coming summer that provides the ingredients, if the right atmospheric conditions come along, for rapid intensification of cyclones, so there’s nothing to say that we won’t see an equivalent.”

Professor Turton said Hurricane Milton, which reached Category 5 in the Gulf of Mexico and threatened to be the first system to make Category 6, before making landfall in Florida as a Category 3, sparked conversations of introducing a Category 6 to the hurricane and tropical cyclone scale – similar to that of Typhoon Tip which was the largest and most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded, in 1979.

In Australia, cyclones are ranked from Category 1 (weakest) to 5 (strongest).

“I do believe it [a Category 6 cyclone] will happen in my lifetime,” Professor Turton said.

“We will have Category 6 potentially on an Australian scale as well … but we need a precedent yet in Australia, in the Coral Sea, we need to have a precedent like Milton.

“The average track of tropical cyclones has responded to warming and are moving a bit further south in our region, and so with continued warming, this is likely to bring tropical cyclones into contact with places that perhaps haven’t seen them for a long time.

“We need to be wary of more rapid intensification when the conditions are right, and greater risk for flooding events, especially after crossing the coast, as we saw with Cyclone Jasper (last year).”

If a tropical cyclone continued to track in a southward trajectory, Professor Turton said many of the “cyclone prone areas” south of Bundaberg would be largely unprepared and there would likely be severe damage to the regions.

“You’re looking at highly populated regions … you’ve got canal estates, you’ve got low lying areas and rising sea levels to top it off,” he said.

“So there’s the storm surge issue, which is one thing, but the other issue is wind exposure of buildings that are not built to the same rigorous standards as you get north of Bundaberg.

“It won’t be a problem with a weaker cyclone, but a Category 4 coming in towards the Sunshine Coast or Gold Coast – a lot of structures are not going to cope very well.”