BOM releases climate outlook: Above average spring rainfall
Queensland may be facing a very wet spring, with the weather bureau saying there is a chance La Nina could return. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
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Queensland could face a very wet spring, with the Bureau of Meteorology today confirming a more than 50 per cent chance that La Nina would return.
Four of the bureau’s seven forecast models have now indicated La Nina will recur by the end of spring, and is expected to be coupled with an emerging negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD).
Meteorologist Brooke Pagel said it was not uncommon for Australia to experience back-to-back La Ninas or El Ninos, but the IOD pairing would lead to higher-than-average spring rainfall.
“The ENSO climate driver is on a 10-year cycle, so it’s not uncommon to have La Ninas or El Ninos back-to-back, it happens sometimes,” she said.
“This time around, the IOD is looking to be negative over the next couple of weeks and will last for a couple of months, so we‘re expecting that negative IOD to pair with La Nina, and that will create above average rainfall for spring.”
Current forecasting predicts parts of Queensland could receive upwards of 200mm between August and October, possibly reaching upwards of 400mm between September and November.
The coupling of a La Nina and negative IOD would also lead to warmer overnight temperatures and warmer than average waters in northern parts of the state.
It would be a welcome relief for Queenslanders who have experienced colder-than-usual morning temperatures this week, particularly those in the Darling Downs region who woke to frosty negative temperatures on Friday morning.
Applethorpe recorded a freezing -3.4C, while Warwick saw -2.2C and Roma -1.1C.
Temperatures are expected to heat up next week as a low pressure trough makes its way through the north on Sunday and the southeast around Tuesday,
“By early next week we are expecting to come back up to average or above average temperatures with that trough bringing more moisture, and a few scattered showers,” Ms Pagel said.
“There‘s no significant heavy rainfall yet, we’re expecting about 15mm in southwest catchments, and we’re not expecting it to impact flood levels just yet.”
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