Federal election Sunshine Coast: Analyst tips swings against LNP

A political analyst says it won’t be an upset but there will be a shift in support on the Sunshine Coast, as calls for major infrastructure funding grow.

An influx of southerners to the Sunshine State and cost of living pressures could shake-up election results in the typically safe LNP Sunshine Coast electorates.

Incumbent Liberal MPs for Fairfax and Fisher Ted O’Brien and Andrew Wallace are contesting for re-election for the seats where they hold margins of more than 12 per cent.

University of Queensland political scientist Dr Glenn Kefford said those margins were likely to be squeezed as cost of living pressures were front of mind at the 2022 federal election.

Dr Kefford said a shift from a safe seat would attract major parties to pay more attention to the Sunshine Coast –one of Australia’s fastest growing regions.

It comes as Sunshine Coast Council releases its federal election wishlist including funding for the Brisbane to Maroochydore rail, stadium expansion and $100m towards a Maroochydore convention centre.

The Sunshine Coast Daily has launched the Train for the Games campaign, calling for funding for the project ahead of the 2032 Olympic Games.

“I think we’ll see a more competitive contest compared to what we’ve seen on the Sunshine Coast in recent election cycles,” Dr Kefford said.

“It aligns with broader changes in federal politics where contests in previously safe seats are becoming a bit more volatile.”

A decline in votes for major parties, influx of interstate residents to the Sunshine Coast and cost of living pressures mounting would all contribute, according to Dr Kefford.

It comes as state and federal governments are at loggerheads over the costs of a Brisbane to Maroochydore rail link and how it should be funded.

The LNP included $1.6bn towards the project, estimated to be $3.2bn, in its 2022-23 budget.

However the state government refuses to match the funding – casting doubts over the cost estimates and awaiting the results of a $6m planning study.

Mayor Mark Jamieson called on all parties to commit to delivering the Beerwah to Maroochydore rail extension, which would provide passenger rail to travel to and from Brisbane in less than 70 minutes.

“It’s all politics,” Dr Kefford said of the rail debate.

“Right now, clearly the state government will be wanting to, without putting the federal government off-side, to see a Labor federal government.

“So the messaging will be an attempt to point to the way a Labor government at a state and federal level can provide the best infrastructure for local residents.

Sunshine Coast Council Mayor Mark Jamieson wants all parties to commit to delivering Brisbane to Maroochydore rail, a stadium expansion and $100m towards a convention centre.

“No matter the outcome if the coalition is re-elected there will be attempts for the state and federal governments to work together … because there is the perception that these shared projects will ultimately benefit people on the Sunshine Coast significantly.”

He said if the Sunshine Coast was to become more marginal the region would attract more attention from political parties.

“What will happen is if these seats become more competitive is we’ll see more parties and candidates investing resources and time there, which can only be a good thing,” Dr Kefford said.

New polling from YouGov has predicted tightening margins in Sunshine Coast seats but it won’t be enough to tip them into Labor hands.

The polling figures released on Wednesday forecast two-party preferred swings to Labor in the seats of Fisher and Fairfax.

In Fairfax the YouGov polling had the Coalition ahead of Labor 58-42 which if replicated would be about a 5 per cent swing away from the LNP’s Mr O’Brien’s first preference support also tipped to fall by about 4 per cent.

Labor and Greens first preferences were forecast to climb about 3 per cent each.

In Fisher the Coalition was tipped by YouGov to hold the seat held by Andrew Wallace 55-45 on two-party preferred, down on the 59-41 lead it finished with in 2019.

The latest polling predicted the LNP’s first preferences to drop about 8 per cent while Labor’s was tipped to climb about 6 per cent.