QLD election 2020: How Labor Party, Annastacia Palaszczuk can win
Palaszczuk’s quest for another term - and the chance to be Labor’s third-longest serving Queensland Premier - seems simple enough on paper, but what exactly does Labor need to do to win?
Candidates
Don't miss out on the headlines from Candidates. Followed categories will be added to My News.
ANNASTACIA Palaszczuk’s quest for another term – and the chance to enter the Labor pantheon as its third-longest-serving Queensland premier – seems simple enough on paper.
Win all 48 seats she claimed at the last election and maybe add two or three for good measure.
But politics is never so simple.
Premier wants majority, not ‘chaos and disaster’
‘Personal and nasty’: Premier’s warning as campaign launches
First, Labor needs to reclaim the five seats it won off the LNP in southeast Queensland in 2017 – Aspley, Gaven, Redlands, Mansfield and Mount Ommaney.
However, three of those – Aspley, Redlands and Mansfield – were secured via One Nation’s retaliatory preferencing decision when Pauline Hanson put sitting LNP members last on her how-to-vote cards.
Whether One Nation runs in those seats, how the minor party has performed during the COVID crisis and where its voters direct preferences will all be crucial to Labor’s prospects for its three most marginal seats in Brisbane.
Yet in the state capital, there will be one seat that pundits will be watching above all others: South Brisbane, held by former deputy premier Jackie Trad.
With the LNP breaking from convention and urging its voters to preference Trad last, the Greens are a strong change of finally claiming the electorate they have long coveted.
There is also the prospect of Labor picking up seats in the southeast corner, with Pumicestone likely to fall to Labor and the party is talking up its chances in Caloundra and Burleigh.
However, Labor must win most of its regional seats first for these to matter, and that won’t be easy. The three Townsville seats, particularly Mundingburra and Thuringowa, are under considerable threat with concern the government hasn’t addressed the city’s crime concerns. Cairns, Barron River, Keppel and Cook will also be tough fights – while Labor appears a chance in Burdekin and Whitsunday, both notionally held by the LNP, as well as One Nation’s only state seat, Mirani.
Reclaiming a seat or two in the southeast corner won’t be enough to secure Labor another majority if the tide turns in regional Queensland.
That’ll leave Palaszczuk looking for friends on the crossbench, with Noosa independent Sandy Bolton a prime target. However, if Labor loses more than two seats in total, it will need an alliance with either the Greens or Katter’s Australian Party, and that’s when things get really tricky.