Southeast Queensland faces housing crisis

Southeast Queensland must nearly double its current annual dwelling production to accommodate almost six million residents by 2046, according to RPM Group research

Aerial photos of the housing development at Aura on the Sunshine Coast.

Southeast Queensland is at the epicentre of the housing crisis and must nearly double its current annual dwelling production to accommodate almost six million residents by 2046, according to RPM Group research.

Under the SEQ Regional Plan, an average of 34,552 dwellings are required each year between 2021 and 2046 to meet the heightened demand generated by an expected 2.2 million extra people.

However, the current rate is about half that, with just 17,485 lots registered in the year to June 2024.

“The pressure on the region’s land supply continues to intensify,” said RMP Group Queensland and NSW managing director Clinton Tresize, whose company markets a range of new projects in Queensland’s southeast.

“There is no doubt that housing supply and affordability issues are intensifying. However, further releases to ease pressure on demand will address the affordability factor.

“At present we have a double whammy where there are not enough homes being built and this is impacting affordability, which in turn prevents people from getting into the market.

“We need to have a long look at how we can address the issue of affordability, or it will become impossible for younger people in particular to get onto the property ladder.”

The Ipswich LGA – which includes Australia’s largest masterplanned city of Springfield – is one of the region’s largest supply areas and will need up to 4000 new homes annually for the next 23 years.

In the Ipswich Council area, Ripley Valley, southwest of Brisbane, is one of Australia’s largest urban growth areas and has seen population more than double (230 per cent) from 2016 to 2022.

The area is expected to have the highest population growth of any region in Queensland, with 104,170 new residents forecast to move there by 2046.

Mr Tresize said that to keep up with this demand at the current pace Ipswich needed to increase its housing supply by 45 per cent. The Queensland government’s recent announcement of 9100 housing lots will be unlocked at Ripley under new infrastructure agreements.

Stockland, Lendlease, Orchard Property and Goldfields have a major presence at Ripley, and SIG recently launched its $230m Amory at Ripley community, which will deliver 630 dwellings. The Amory project spans 39ha and offers a variety of lot sizes, from low-maintenance 117sq m terraces to larger family home sites exceeding 450sq m.

Mr Tresize said southeast Queensland was at a “critical juncture” but projects like Amory in the high growth corridors would go some way to alleviating the housing shortage.

However, many of Australia’s largest property groups, which have long-range plans for major subdivisions in greenfield sites, have faced opposition from council and community groups, while economic factors also weigh heavily.

Stockland is building a five-suburb city, Aura, on the southern end of Queensland’s Sunshine Coast, where more than 50,000 people will eventually live. It is also planning a new project – Aura South – at its southern border at Halls Creek, but has come up against strong opposition.

This year developer AVJennings pulled the pin on 3500 affordable housing lots at the Caboolture West satellite city, which would have been home to about 10 per cent of the city’s forecast 70,000 population. The company said that increases in future sales revenue were not enough to offset soaring infrastructure and development costs.

Meanwhile, across greater Brisbane, developers are scrambling to find infill residential sites to meet demand.

Demand pressures have driven double-digit gains for apartment prices and residential land in the greater Brisbane region over the past year, with a recent RPM report revealing a 28 per cent slump in apartment approvals, compounded by an 8 per cent drop in detached dwelling approvals and a 2.5 per cent fall in townhouse approvals in 2023.

Colliers director development sites, residential, Adam Rubie said the pool of land subdivision sites across Brisbane and surrounding LGAs had been shrinking dramatically throughout 2024.

“Right now, you could probably count on one hand the number of shovel-ready sites in the northern Brisbane region that could be brought to market within six months,” Mr Rubie said.

“At the same time, there are a lot of private developers and builder-developers desperately hunting for new sites to keep their pipelines stocked.”