Analysis: Why Palaszczuk can’t be underestimated

The Premier’s go-slow approach to restoring normal programming in Queensland after the coronavirus lockdown is dividing the state. But here’s why she can’t be underestimated ahead of the election, writes Steven Wardill.

IT SAYS much about the pickle in which Annastacia Palaszczuk find herself that she remains far less popular than Anna Bligh was after the 2011 floods.

Two Labor premiers, two seismic disasters, yet two vastly different results.

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Bligh surged from the least to the most popular political leader in Australia after water inundated much of Queensland, causing death and destruction on an unprecedented scale.

Satisfaction with her performance rose from a perilous 25 per cent to 60 per cent as voters rallied behind her famous “we are Queenslanders” war cry.

Labor’s vote also rose considerably but it still trailed the LNP.

Conversely, Palaszczuk has only managed to resuscitate her popularity to slightly better than where it was a year ago, still no mean feat, but the Labor vote has inextricably gone backwards.

YouGov poll results for June 2020.

Part of the explanation for the disparity will be because these are two quite different leaders who are dealing with very different disasters.

Bligh managed to unite Queenslanders behind the all-too-familiar task of cleaning up after a disaster, albeit one on a much greater scale than usual.

The coronavirus pandemic, however, is a unique and alien crisis and Palaszczuk’s go-slow approach to restoring normal programming after the lockdown is dividing the state.

There are other distinct differences.

Bligh had a year to go before an election was due – a lifetime in politics – while Palaszczuk has less than 150 days.

The former premier’s popularity receded almost as fast as the floodwaters as the cost of reconstruction climbed while Palaszczuk will face the people on October 31, before the recession will start to extract its true toll.

Bligh also faced a well-liked opposition leader in John-Paul Langbroek who was replaced after the floods by someone even more popular in Campbell Newman.

YouGov poll results for June 2020.

Palaszczuk will be facing off against Deb Frecklington, who has never really challenged her title of Queensland’s preferred premier.

While the floods might have briefly revived Bligh’s fortunes, the die was cast after she unveiled asset sales following her re-election in 2009 and her position was compounded by several acts of maladministration.

Palaszczuk’s second term has been peppered with internal scandals, particularly to do with her former deputy, Jackie Trad, but she’s proven time and again that she shouldn’t be underestimated.