Qld’s GST share tipped to fall in 2024 due to coal mining boom

Queensland will be only the second jurisdiction in Australia allowed to keep a greater share of GST revenue in the middle of a mining boom, the state’s Treasury has tipped.

Queensland’s coal boom will trigger a drop in the state’s GST share next year, according to Treasury projections.

It would make Queensland only the second jurisdiction, behind Western Australia, allowed to keep a greater share of GST revenue amid a mining boom.

GST revenue is divvied up by the federal government based on a jurisdiction’s earning power and needs, with a focus on ensuring all Australians are on a level playing field in accessing services and infrastructure regardless of where they live in the country.

Operations at Bravus (formerly known as Adani) at its Carmichael coalmine Picture: Cameron Laird

A new GST “floor” was put in place in 2018 under a deal struck with Western Australia, meaning a jurisdiction must receive a minimum share of the GST regardless of how much cash it’s raking in – averaged over a three-year period to reduce volatility.

Queensland Treasurer Cameron Dick said on Monday if Queensland hit the GST floor as predicted, the state would be able “to keep more of our royalties”.

Queensland is not expected to stay near the GST floor in the long term.

Queensland Treasurer Cameron Dick. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Tertius Pickard

Until mid-2024, the GST floor is 70c for every dollar that a jurisdiction contributes, increasing to 75c on the dollar from the 2024-25 financial year.

To support the transition to the new system, the federal government brought in the “no worse-off” guarantee, meaning no state would receive a lower amount of GST than it would have under the old arrangements.

The no worse-off guarantee will expire in 2027-28.