YouGov poll reveals Queensland would face hung parliament if election held today

Labor’s support has plunged to its lowest level in three years with exclusive polling by The Courier-Mail revealing if an election was held today, there would be a shock result.

Queensland would face a hung parliament if an election was held today, with exclusive polling revealing the ongoing integrity scandal facing Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has seen Labor’s support plunge to its lowest level in three years.

A new YouGov poll of more than 1000 people, conducted exclusively for The Courier-Mail, has revealed months of questions about integrity within the Palaszczuk government has smashed its standing among voters.

If a state election was held today, more Queenslanders would vote one for the LNP (38 per cent) than for Labor (34 per cent) – and even preferences from a resurgent Greens (whose support has increased by 4 percentage points since February, to 14 per cent) would not deliver Labor a majority.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has seen support for Labor plunge to its lowest level in three years. Picture: Russell Freeman

Instead, a hung parliament would be the most likely outcome – with the two-party preferred vote locked at 50-50, according to YouGov.

The poor result for the government – revealed just days after the Premier confirmed she would stand at the 2024 election seeking a historic fourth term – will send shockwaves through the Labor caucus.

It reveals the electoral honeymoon Ms Palaszczuk enjoyed during the Covid pandemic, which helped her win the 2020 election with a two party-preferred vote of 53-47, is well and truly over.

The deadlocked two-party preferred vote is a significant shift even since February, when Labor enjoyed a healthy 52-48 margin over the LNP on the back of a 39-38 per cent primary vote lead.

Labor’s primary vote is now six points below what it recorded on election day in October 2020.

The vote is also a significant five point fall since February when integrity questions were first raised, prompting Ms Palaszczuk to call for the Coaldrake Review – that was delivered last week and painted a bleak picture of the inner-workings of the government.

However, the hit to Labor has not translated to a boost in support for the LNP, with its primary vote unchanged on 38 per cent.

The Opposition, led by David Crisafulli has not seen a boost in support with its primary vote unchanged on 38 per cent. Picture: Liam Kidston.

Voters are instead deserting Labor for the Greens, with almost all of Labor’s drop in support going to the minor party.

The increase in support for the Greens continues the trend experienced at the federal election when the party shocked Labor by winning the inner-city seat of Griffith, once held by Kevin Rudd, to unseat shadow environment minister Terri Butler.

It also won, off the LNP, the inner-city seat of Brisbane and Ryan, which covers the inner-western suburbs.

Queensland would face a hung parliament if an election was held today, according to exclusive polling by The Courier-Mail. Picture: Tertius Pickard

That trend and this poll suggests the Greens could at the state election win the CBD seat of McConnell – held by senior Cabinet member, Education Minister Grace Grace – and the old seat of Ashgrove, now Cooper, held by first-term Labor MP Jonty Bush.

The poll of 1044 Queenslanders was taken by YouGov between June 23 and 30 also reveals Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party’s primary vote has also increased two points since February to 10, while Katter’s Australia Party remains stable on one.

The latest round of polling is the worst result for Labor since pre-pandemic times, when in August 2019 it trailed the Deb Frecklington-led opposition 51 to 49.

Labor’s primary vote, meanwhile, is the worst since June 2020 – when it fell to 32 per cent.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has revealed she will contest the next election. Picture: Paul Beutel

The poll will put pressure on Ms Palaszczuk, who has faced claims from her own MPs that she has “checked out” as premier.

However, on Thursday the third-term Premier revealed she had informed her Caucus she would take the team to the election against Mr Crisafulli.

“The people of this state give me energy every single day, to do this job to look after them and to take this state, you know, to the next stage,” she said.

If she serves a full term and runs in 2024 Ms Palaszczuk would overtake Peter Beattie’s nine years in power to become Queensland’s longest-serving post-war Labor premier.