Wipe-out: Labor at serious risk of losing nine seats

New analysis reveals state Labor is at serious risk of losing nine marginal seats, including a wipe-out in the state’s North and serious electoral injury in regional Queensland at the next election.

Thuringowa MP Aaron Harper, Redlands MP Kim Richards, Bundaberg MP Tom Smith, Resources Minister Scott Stewart, Member for Barron River Craig Crawford, Hervey Bay MP Adrian Tantari, Caloundra MP Jason Hunt, Nicklin MP Robert Skelton, Les Walker - Mundingburra MP.

The Palaszczuk government is facing a wipe-out in the state’s North and serious electoral injury in regional Queensland at the next election.

Explosive new YouGov polling shows Labor is facing a substantial swing against it.

Assuming a uniform two-party preferred swing of 4 per cent, Labor is at serious risk of losing nine marginal seats.

And in a political headache for both major parties nine seats changing hands puts neither in a position to form majority government, leaving them to the mercy of the state’s growing crossbench.

The seats Labor stands to lose include the North Queensland trio of Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra and the Far North Queensland seat of Barron River currently held by frontbencher Craig Crawford.

Seats Labor swiped from the LNP in 2020 amid a groundswell of support from “Palaszczuk’s pensioners” for the Covid-19 response, namely Bundaberg, Nicklin, Hervey and Caloundra, are also in the firing line.

Bundaberg MP Tom Smith.

Nicklin MP Robert Skelton.

The outer suburban seat of Redlands would also fall.

The YouGov poll, of a total of 1015 Queenslanders in the week of March 30 to April 5, revealed cost of living was the top issue impacting voters with a quarter of Queenslanders already on the brink of financial breaking point or over the edge.

Youth crime is also a major issue, with nearly half of all Queenslanders of the view offending by young people in their suburb had increased or hit crisis point.

But the polling showed regional Queenslanders are being hit harder by hip pocket pain and youth crime anxieties than their southeast counterparts.

This comes against the backdrop of a significant dip in Annastacia Palaszczuk’s standing as preferred premier, which is now worse than both Campbell Newman and Anna Bligh before their ejection from power.

Labor secured a two party preferred vote of 53.2 per cent to the LNP’s 46.8 per cent at the 2020 Queensland election.

But the YouGov poll revealed the LNP now holds a lead over Labor of 51-49 per cent — equating to a swing since the election of 4 per cent against the government.

The Member for Redlands, Kim Richards during Question time at Queensland Parliament. Picture: NCANewswire/Glenn Campbell

QUT associate adjunct professor and former Queensland Parliament Speaker John Mickel said the state’s vastness meant the seat swings could vary significantly, noting that polling was a “snapshot” of how people felt at the time.

“It’s is snapshot of what people are feeling right now, not a predictor,” he said.

“But government should not ignore it. It is a kick in the shins, rather than a kick out the door.”

He also signalled electorate contests were now multi-party affairs, with Labor and the LNP under threat from the Greens in inner-city seats while the Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation also dial up the pressure in northern and regional areas.

“Seats that look safer on the two-party preferred doesn’t mean they are necessarily safer on the primary vote,” Prof Mickel said, pointing to a 3 per cent uplift in support for the Greens primary vote since 2020.