The $850m Queensland question: Will PM seal the deal?

It is D-Day for a deal which could expand a $850 million market for Queensland and create a jobs bonanza, but can Scott Morrison seal the deal when he meets with Boris Johnson?

An expansion of Queensland’s $850 million exports to the UK hangs in the balance as Australia and Britain scramble to finalise a trade deal ahead of today’s meeting between the PMs.

The deal was meant to be the UK’s first trade deal after Brexit and to send a message to China about the importance of free markets.

But hopes that Queensland beef and dairy producers could get free access to UK supermarket shelves for the first time since the 1970s were shaky as sticking points on agriculture were at risk of delaying the signing of any in-principle free-trade agreement.

Deal or no deal. Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson will meet with Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Tuesday in hopes of signing and in-principle free trade agreement Picture: Adrian Dennis/AFP

An answer on whether the deal will go ahead is expected to be known by 5pm Australian time on Tuesday, prior to Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s meeting with Boris Johnson.

If a deal is not signed, negotiations will continue with no specific new deadline set.

Strict quotas and a 20 per cent tariff, or import tax, on Australian beef have kept the product largely out of the UK.

Lifting the tariffs and quotas would open up a lucrative market, but there has been pushback from some British politicians.

AgForce boss Mike Guerin said it would be hugely beneficial to Queensland beef and dairy farmers if the deal went ahead.

“It’s a powerful and important market with a country we have had a relationship with for a very long time,” he said.

“Our hope is the deal will be signed in the spirit of the way it is intended.”

Queensland beef farmers will win big if a free-trade agreement goes ahead with the UK. Picture: Lachie Millard

Trade Minister Dan Tehan has said Australia will only sign the deal if it is “in the national interest”.

Last week he said there would be “enormous benefits” for Queensland businesses and jobs if the deal is done.

Queensland’s beef exports are worth $6.2 billion globally, but currently just $18 million to the UK due to strict quotas and a 20 per cent tariff.

Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade data shows Queensland exported about $850 million in products to the UK in 2019-20.

More than half of that was lead, while coal exports were worth $213 million, while vehicle parts were the next biggest export at just $24 million, while beef was the fourth biggest.