Steven Miles firming as most likely next Premier as Fentiman, Dick make last ditch efforts for top job

Steven Miles is emerging as Queensland’s most likely next premier, amid a last-ditch effort from rising star Shannon Fentiman. VOTE IN OUR POLL

Steven Miles is emerging as Queensland’s most likely next premier, despite a last-ditch effort from rising star and Health Minister Shannon Fentiman.

Labor powerbrokers and MPs are warning the battle to be premier is far from a fait accompli, with Treasurer Cameron Dick understood to be sounding out his potential in a three-horse leadership race.

Mr Miles, the Deputy Premier, has been anointed successor by outgoing Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, who gave him a resounding endorsement on Sunday as she made her shock announcement to bow out by the end of the week.

Mr Miles has already declared his hand, confirming in a statement he would nominate as Labor leader and premier when MPs hold an emergency meeting of caucus on Friday.

Ms Fentiman is yet to officially announce her candidacy, but her camp was furiously attempting to shore up support on Sunday, with supporters asserting there was a chance they could pull off a bolt-from-the-blue defeat of the United Workers Union.

Mr Dick, understood to have been shocked by Ms Palaszczuk’s endorsement of Mr Miles, was as of late Sunday evening gauging support for himself.

The path to becoming the next premier involves winning the support of the 52-member Labor caucus, which is split into three factions: the dominant Left faction made up of 25 MPs, the nine-member Old Guard and the 18 MPs who are aligned to Ms Palaszczuk’s Right faction.

But the Left faction is understood to be split, with United Workers Union powerbroker Gary Bullock directing the dozen MPs aligned to the union to support Mr Miles.

The other 13 Left faction MPs who aren’t tied to the United Workers Union were expected to firm up behind Ms Fentiman, although at least one free agent confirmed they were swinging in behind Mr Miles.

The nine Old-Guard-aligned MPs have kept their cards close to their chest, revealing only that they would vote as a bloc above all else. All nine are members of the United Workers Union.

It’s understood that as of Sunday evening the bloc would be falling behind Mr Miles.

That means the voting intentions of Labor’s Right will be integral to installing the next leader, with the messages so far mixed on which way they will fall.

One Right-aligned MP conceded it was more likely Mr Miles would emerge victorious, as the Right’s support for Mr Dick – who has not yet publicly declared what he plans to do – was only lukewarm.

“They (the Right) are not gunning for Cameron as much as Cameron is gunning for Cameron,” the MP said.

A strident backer of Mr Miles declared MPs on the Right were lining up to back him in as leader as he was the most palatable option.

In a stinging broadside, the MP lashed Ms Fentiman as having an “inclination toward autocracy”, “policy blind spots” and was untested as leader compared to Mr Miles, who has had multiple stints as Acting Premier.

Leadership frontrunner Steven Miles with wife Kim at Mango Hill north of Brisbane on Sunday. Picture: Richard Walker

Assistant Health Minister Brittany Lauga, in an unexpected statement, threw her support behind Ms Fentiman as “the best person for the job”.

“Shannon listens, understands and acts. She is also the best problem solver in the government,” she said.

A supporter of Ms Fentiman conceded that Mr Miles had substantial numbers due to the backing of United Workers Union allies but ­insisted the race was “absolutely” still alive.

The MP said the overwhelming feeling from discussions with colleagues was a desire for the party to pick a leader who could defy Labor’s slumping support in the polls and lead the party to victory in October’s election.

“Almost everyone I’ve spoken to believes that Shannon has the ability – that she’s capable, she’s a great performer in the parliament (and) she has been able to solve problems that have been going on for months,” they said.

Left-aligned Labor sources have not ruled out the unorthodox option of having Mr Miles as premier and Ms Fentiman as his deputy, but the move would be difficult to negotiate and is deemed unlikely.

One government minister said this would need to involve an entirely united Left faction which was prepared to have a coherent conversation – signalling that the split in support was likely to make a Miles-Fentiman double team unattainable.

A senior Right-aligned Labor source said the United Workers Union’s Mr Bullock would need to have “rocks in his head” in order to allow this to happen.

BACKROOM SCRAMBLE TO SHORE UP NUMBERS

Queensland MPs were scrambling behind closed doors on Sunday night to pick Annastacia Palaszczuk’s successor, desperate to avoid a lengthy and ugly process to publicly battle for the leadership.

The state branch of the Labor Party has one of the toughest policies in the country for when more than one contender seeks the crown, and a Labor MP told The ­Courier-Mail triggering the two-month sequence of votes would be “death” for the party.

The stringent process, which includes three separate votes – the parliamentary caucus, rank-and-file members and unions – would be a messy fight playing out in public less than a year before the election.

A senior Left faction minister also said the jostling for who will succeed Ms Palaszczuk was “fluid”, with the faction’s 25 caucus members split between current party deputy Steven Miles and Health Minister Shannon Fentiman.

The Old Guard, which has nine members, was supporting Mr Miles’ bid while Treasurer Cameron Dick is understood to be gauging support to contest the leadership for the Right, which has 18 members.

Most MPs who spoke to The Courier-Mail were confident the party would fall behind one contender in the coming days – well ahead of caucus on Friday. This sequence of ballots could take weeks and consume crucial time ahead of the election in October next year, which one MP said would “be bloody death by a thousand cuts” for the party.

A Left MP actively lobbying colleagues for Ms Fentiman, said a contest between two or more contenders at caucus would trigger a secret ballot, which she predicted would tempt some members to abandon factional allies in the hope of electing a leader more capable of retaining government at the election.

But she was also insistent this would be a disaster, given Labor is already trailing the LNP in most polls. “On Friday (when caucus meets), if we do everything right, we won’t have a ballot,” the MP said.

“We don’t actually want there to be a contest so caucus can support someone on Friday and everyone gets behind them and then there’s no broader branch ballot.”

There were fears among some in the Left that the continued jostling in the faction would split the vote and potentially play into the hands of Mr Dick from the Right.

But those closely managing the votes insisted it was unlikely the Treasurer would emerge victorious. “I think he might end up being able to wiggle his way into a deputy role, but I don’t think he’ll be premier,” one party insider said.