Revealed: Every Labor MP facing defeat in six months
Labor is on track to lose a whopping 21 seats at the state election if new polling for The Courier-Mail is replicated in October. Here are the MPs facing the chop.
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Labor is on track to lose a whopping 21 seats at the state election if new polling for The Courier-Mail is replicated in October.
The government’s two-party vote has swung 9 per cent since its 2020 election victory under Annastacia Palaszczuk and Premier Steven Miles now admits it’s “very likely” he’ll lose.
The LNP need to win 12 seats, but here are the 21 polling says they’ll claim.
Bundaberg, 0.01 per cent
Former teacher Tom Smith secured a shock win in the seat of Bundaberg at the 2020 election.
His five-vote victory was credited to ‘Palaszczuk’s pensioners’ – the movement of older Queenslanders who endorsed the then premier’s Covid-19 decisions.
Mr Smith faces a strong challenge from Bundaberg Fruit and Vegetable Growers CEO Bree Watson as the LNP’s candidate.
Nicklin, 0.1 per cent
A rematch is underway in the Sunshine Coast’s rural hinterland as Labor MP Rob Skelton defends the ultra marginal seat against former LNP MP Marty Hunt.
Mr Skelton won the seat in 2020 with a 5.4 per cent swing to Labor.
His first term has been littered with headlines about his social media antics – including on one occasion when he was forced to apologise.
Hervey Bay, 2 per cent
The forces of long-serving MP Ted Sorensen’s retirement and Palaszczuk’s pensioners combined to deliver the seat to Labor in 2020 for the first time since 2006.
Former bureaucrat Adrian Tantari was victorious over the LNP’s Steve Coleman – a local businessman.
This time around Mr Tantari will face former councillor David Lee.
Caloundra, 2.5 per cent
Labor won Caloundra for the first time in 2020 when three-time candidate Jason Hunt rode the Palaszczuk Covid-19 wave into office.
The government’s attempt to build a youth remand centre in Caloundra – scuttled after widespread outrage – dominated the first two years of Mr Hunt’s tenure.
He’ll go up against the LNP’s Kendall Morton in October, a former teacher and business owner.
Barron River, 3.1 per cent
Dumped minister Craig Crawford faces the chopping block with the far north seat at risk of falling to the LNP.
Mr Crawford, former child safety and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Affairs minister was left out of Mr Miles’s first cabinet in December.
His LNP challenger is Bree James, who made headlines last month for a now-deleted video regaling the in appropriate things children innocently say, like when her son “pointed out an African man at Bunnings and said ‘hey monkey’”.
Townsville, 3.1 per cent
Scott Stewart is the minister most at risk of a swing against Labor with his seat of Townsville held on a thin 3.1 per cent.
The resources minister faces the LNP’s Adam Baillie – who is seeking to win the seat for the conservatives for the second time in three decades.
With Townsville the centre of the state’s crime struggles, polling indicates Labor’s three seats in the region will fall.
Thuringowa, 3.2 per cent
Like Townsville immediately to the north, Thuringowa is at serious risk of falling to the LNP come October.
Aaron Harper, elected with Annastacia Palaszczuk in 2015, is fighting for a fourth term amid crime concerns in his electorate.
He called victims of crime attempting to meet Ms Palaszczuk an LNP “rent a crowd”, drawing jeers and leading to his apology the next day.
Mundingburra 3.9 per cent
The third wheel on the Townsville tricycle is Les Walker’s Mundingburra.
Mr Walker has faced controversy over his conduct in Townsville’s late-night venues and blamed staff when he left a book ‘Forensics for Dummies’ as a tribute at a Police Remembrance Day service honouring fallen officers.
Mr Walker will be challenged by the LNP’s Janelle Poole.
Redlands 3.9 per cent
The bayside seat of Redlands was won by Kim Richards in 2020 – a shock victory again credited to Ms Palaszczuk’s Covid decisions.
Ms Richards holds the seat on a 3.9 per cent margin and will be challenged by former chamber of commerce president Rebecca Young.
Aspley 5.2 per cent
Transport Minister and two-term MP Bart Mellish is under threat in his outer-Brisbane seat.
Mr Mellish defeated former Brisbane City Councillor Amanda Cooper in 2020 with a strong 8 per cent swing.
He’ll face her again in October.
Pumicestone 5.3 per cent
One of the premier’s biggest supporters, assistant minister Ali King faces a battle to hold her Bribe Island seat of Pumicestone.
The LNP claims she dudded the community by promising a hospital in 2020 – only to get a Satellite Hospital – and has attempted to claim a desalination plant would be built in the area.
Ms King and the government have denied this.
The LNP’s Ariana Doolan, aged 22, will stand against Ms King.
Cairns, 5.6 per cent
Tourism and Sport Minister Michael Healy has only been in his new ministerial role since Steven Miles was elected – but it may be short lived.
He faces a tough challenge to hold the North Queensland seat he has been the local member of since 2017.
The LNP have fielded a high-profile candidate with Yolonde Entsch, a well-known businesswoman and wife of federal MP Warren Entsch.
Keppel, 5.6 per cent
Assistant Minister Brittany Lauga has a battle on her hands to retain the crucial regional seat of Keppel – a seat she has held since Annastacia Palaszczuk swept to power in 2015.
Former Livingstone Shire deputy mayor Nigel Hutton is her LNP challenger, but she also has another strong opponent in Pauline Hanson’s high-profile chief of staff James Ashby running on the One Nation ticket.
Keppel has been in Labor hands since Lauga’s victory, but it did turn blue during the Campbell Newman wipe-out in 2012.
Redcliffe, 6.1 per cent
With Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath stepping down, Labor have endorsed former high school teacher and police prosecutor Kass Hall.
She will face-off with Kerri-Anne Dooley, who is hoping it is six-time lucky to win the Redcliffe seat. D’Ath came to power during a by-election in 2014 with a whopping 17.2 per cent swing – with her win viewed as a precursor to Newman’s eventual loss in 2015.
Cook, 6.3 per cent
One of a number of seats which has been largely held by Labor other than the 2012 wipe-out, Cynthia Lui nevertheless faces a tough challenge to retain Cook, one of the largest seats in Queensland.
One Nation will field Peter Campion, a retired regional firefighter, while the Katter’s Australian Party – who picked up more than 17 per cent of first preference votes last election – have named ex-SAS soldier and cattle farmer Bruce Logan.
The LNP are yet to field a candidate.
Mackay, 6.7 per cent
The seat of Mackay has been held by the Labor Party for more than 100 years, including by former premier William Forgan Smith.
Incredibly, current MP Julianne Gilbert is only the fifth person to be elected in Mackay, with her predecessor the late Tim Mulherin holding the seat for twenty years – including at the 2012 wipe-out, which left just seven Labor members standing.
But the Assistant Minister could face a challenge in retaining the seat on 6.7 per cent, though the LNP have yet to name a challenger.
Pine Rivers, 6.7 per cent
Another new Minister who could potentially lose their seat, Nikki Boyd has served as the local Pine Rivers MP since 2015, and will contest the seat for a fourth term.
Ms Boyd was one of several assistant ministers who were elevated following the resignation of Annastacia Palaszczuk, and has been kept busy with the Fire and Disaster Recovery and Corrective Services portfolios.
The LNP have named army veteran Dean Clements as her challenger.
Mansfield, 6.8 per cent
The seat of Mansfield has been a flip-flop electorate over the past twenty years, with the LNP grabbing hold in 2012 for two terms before McMillan was successful in the 2017 vote.
The vote tends to split across the electorate, turning more blue in the east, and red further west.
The LNP have put up Pinky Singh as their candidate against the assistant minister, who previously made an unsuccessful run for Grace Grace’s seat of McConnel in the inner-city in 2020.
Gaven, 7.8 per cent
The LNP could claim one of its biggest victories should it win the seat of Gaven come October – and with it, ousting Labor rising star Meaghan Scanlon.
Ms Scanlon became the youngest woman to be elected to Queensland Parliament when she won in 2017 aged 24, and since then has risen from assistant minister, to Environment Minister, to being handed the crucial housing portfolio last May.
But with her 7.8 per cent margin not looking as safe as it once was, it’s no surprise to see the Minister consistently hitting the pavement for some good old-fashioned door knocking.
The LNP has yet to reveal who will take on this important Gold Coast seat, but former Sunrise reporter Bianca Stone is reported to be throwing her hat in the ring.
Springwood, 8.3 per cent
Another Minister facing a tougher than previously predicted contest is senior minister Mick de Brenni.
The Energy Minister boosted his margin at the last election when he was elected for the third time, with the Logan seat comfortably red in recent history – with the exception of the LNP 2012 wipe-out.
He will face small business owner Susanna Damianopoulos in the Logan seat.
Rockhampton, 8.6 per cent
With sitting Labor MP Barry O’Rourke announcing his retirement, the crucial regional seat is looking up for grabs.
The seat was once one of Labor’s safest and the LNP haven’t ever claimed victory in Rockhampton, but recent strong pushes from high-profile independents and One Nation have made it more of a contest.
Former Rockhampton Mayor Margaret Strelow almost snatched it in 2017, and will again make a run for it in October.
Labor will field biomedical engineer Craig Marshall as their hopeful, while the LNP – who are also eyeing the seat – have named former councillor Donna Kirkland.
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