Queensland’s next Premier: Shannon Fentiman trails as Cameron Dick works to strike Steven Miles deal
Concern over Labor’s ability to win the next election has seen a shock shift in who MPs believe should become Queensland’s next Premier, insiders claim.
QLD Politics
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Persistent doubts about Steven Miles’ ability to win the next election is prompting more Labor MPs to rally behind Health Minister Shannon Fentiman, one of her backers claims.
The Left faction MP argued there was “a distinct shift in caucus of people heading Shannon’s way”, revealing MPs were being pressured by branch members to get behind the Health Minister.
“There’s definitely a drift in different groups towards Shannon of people who feel that she is the best shot for us to win the next election,” the source said.
“There is a clear view in the membership of the party too – a lot of MPs are getting pressure from their branches to vote for Shannon and that is happening right across the board.
“There’s no Shannon voters who are thinking of going the other way, it’s all one way traffic at the moment.”
The Labor said there were persistent doubts over Mr Miles’ electability, with many concerned they will be out of government when the election ballots are closed in late October.
“Steven has been very close to the Premier,” the senior Left figure said.
“He has been a very strong leader, particularly at an important time when he was the health minister – people absolutely believed strongly in his leadership in the pandemic.
“But there’s certainly a lot of friction and he just doesn’t have the big canvas that Shannon does when it comes to communicating.”
The source rubbished views from within the party that Mr Miles had the numbers and the Right would vote as a bloc for the Deputy Premier.
“There is a distinct shift in the caucus of people heading Shannon’s way,” he said.
“So anyone who says they’ve got all their group locked up, they’re just lying – that is bullsh*t. Utter bullsh*t.”
Earlier it was revealed Labor’s minority Right faction is emerging as the kingmaker of Queensland’s next Premier with backers of Cameron Dick working to strike a last-minute deal with either Steven Miles or Ms Fentiman.
Backers of Mr Miles insist he has the votes of the majority of the 52-person Labor Caucus, but challenger Shannon Fentiman’s supporters argue a “split in the Left” is keeping the race open on Tuesday morning.
Mr Dick – the most qualified of the three candidates – hails from the minority Right faction and does not have the outright support to become Premier.
He has not publicly revealed his hand, but is understood to be considering a unity ticket to be both Deputy Premier and Treasurer under Mr Miles.
The Left boasts 25 of Labor’s 52 MPs compared to 18 in the Right and nine in the Old Guard.
There are 12 Left faction MPs aligned to the United Workers’ Union, which is headed by the powerbroker Gary Bullock – who last week told the Premier her time was up.
They are all-but-certain to unify behind Mr Miles, Mr Bullock’s chosen successor, but the votes of the remaining 13 Left MPs appear to be up for grabs.
One MP backing the Deputy Premier insisted the tussling on Tuesday morning was normal, but said the left faction would eventually fall behind Mr Miles.
The Right’s 18 members – with the exception of outgoing Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk – are attempting to stick together and remain the kingmaker of the next Premier.
The Labor Old Guard, led by Ms Palaszczuk’s close friend Grace Grace, will meet today and endorse Mr Miles.
Early indications were Mr Dick was considering a run with Ms Fentiman, but the right argue the health minister is too unaligned from its priorities.
“I just can’t see it,” one right MP said.
Mr Dick has confirmed he is “sounding out” party colleagues but isn’t officially declaring he will make a tilt to be Premier.
Mr Dick, in his first comments since Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk confirmed she was resigning by the end of the week, also said every Labor MP should be allowed to “form a view” of who should be the next state leader “free of factional pressure”.
“They should be able to form a view about who they think is the best person to lead our parliamentary party and to lead Queensland and they should be given that free opportunity to do so,” he said.
“And I think all members of caucus including the premier who remains a caucus member are entitled to form that view.”
Mr Dick said he was not officially putting his hat in the ring to be Premier and was “just sounding out his colleagues”.
“I’m listening to them and then we’ll let those conversations continue across today and the rest of the week.”
A veteran Labor source said everyone wanted to a prevent a messy contested leadership ballot but it remained a possibility.
“You’ve seen how ambitious Shannon Fentiman and Cameron Dick are,” they said.
“No one is served by (a contested leadership ballot).”
The Labor source said the timing of Ms Palaszczuk’s resignation was not ideal amid the threat of a catastrophic natural disaster, though looming Tropical Cyclone Jasper would give Steven Miles a “public audition for the role”.
Despite being a factional ally of Ms Palaszczuk and a Labor colleague for the last 30 years, Mr Dick confirmed her resignation news was a shock to him
“Our thoughts today are with the Premier as well as she moves out of that high office. But we now turn to what the future looks like,” he said.
The right has concerns Ms Fentiman as Premier could result in the party “going crazy” with social reform ahead of the election.
It is now working to extract deals from Mr Miles, including more representation in Cabinet and some minor policy changes.
The right faction is expected to unify behind either Mr Miles or Ms Fentiman, but say “Miles is ahead”.
“Our numbers are significant,” the right MP said.
Another right MP hoped the leadership would be determined today, but there is a risk it could drag closer to Friday’s leadership ballot.
“All three think they’re God’s gift and want to run,” the MP said.
The source said their factional leader, Mr Dick, is still toying with the idea of running but the view from his allies is he doesn’t have the numbers and “can’t get there”.
“At the moment, he’s (Mr Dick) not really communicating too well in the right about what’s going on,” the insider told The Courier-Mail.
They said the faction would vote as a bloc to maximise its bargaining power but the Treasurer’s personal ambition was possibly spoiling its position and opening up the possibility for MPs to go their own way.
“So the longer he sort of waits before he picks one of Steven or Shannon, the more chance that the right will get picked off one by one,” they said.
“We’re in a strong bargaining position to be the kingmakers but if Cameron wants to be king, then we’re not in a strong bargaining position anymore.”
Loose numbers from within Ms Fentiman’s camp has her support at 14 votes compared to 21 for Mr Miles – with the right faction’s 17 yet to decide.
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