Polling shock: Battlelines drawn as explosive new poll delivers boilover no one saw coming

With less than 250 days until the state election, new polling reveals the battle is closer than ever.

Exclusive new Courier-Mail polling has revealed the leadership race between David Crisafulli and Steven Miles is closer than ever.

• Opinion: Miles goes where Stacia wouldn’t

Steven Miles has dragged Labor back from the electoral wipe-out predicted during Annastacia Palaszczuk’s horror final year as premier, with new polling showing the two major parties tied.

UComms polling of 1700 Queenslanders on February 13, commissioned exclusively by The Courier-Mail, shows Labor and the LNP tied on a 50-50 two-party-preferred vote ahead of the October 26 state election.

It is the first time the parties are locked at 50-50 since December 2022, before Ms Palaszczuk in her final year as premier suffered declining approval ratings as integrity, crime, housing and health issues mounted.

Labor officially endorsed Mr Miles as leader, and premier, on December 15.

UComms polling in the days after the leadership change revealed it had paid immediate dividends for Labor with the two-party gap narrowing to 51-49 in favour of the LNP.

The poll reveals Labor’s primary vote remains unchanged at 30.4 per cent compared to late December.

Premier Steven Miles after an event marking the start of construction on a new big battery for Ipswich. Picture: Glenn Campbell

Of the 12.5 per cent undecided voters, 30.5 per cent say they had a “slight leaning” to Labor while 28 per cent say they are likely to favour the LNP.

Mr Miles has also closed the gap to Opposition Leader David Crisafulli, whose 52.2 to 47.8 preferred-premier margin in December has been eroded to 51-49.

The Premier is narrowly favoured by southeast residents, but Mr Crisafulli leads Mr Miles 55.5 to 44.5 per cent in regional Queensland.

Mr Miles is also being seen in a “positive” light by 44.2 per cent of voters, up from 42.7 per cent in December.

Mr Crisafulli said the LNP remained the “underdog” in the state election as he batted away concerns over the party’s dipping first preference vote share, but added the numbers were “not the numbers” that drive him, pointing instead to ambulance ramping, electricity prices and the growth in serious repeat offenders.

“There’s a lot at stake in October,” he said.

Queenslanders’ opinion of Mr Crisafulli is also growing, however, with 41.7 per cent seeing him in a positive way compared to 37.8 per cent in December.

Almost 9 per cent say, however, they have “never heard of him” compared to just 0.7 per cent of Queenslanders who haven’t heard about Mr Miles.

One respondent labelled Mr Miles “relatively more honest than most politicians; willing to listen and willing to take action”, however another said he was “out of his depth, not tough enough and weak”.

Speaking on the Gold Coast while promoting the State government’s Homes for Queenslanders rental assistance program on Friday, Housing Minister Meaghan Scanlon said the rise in support for Labor showed the government was getting back on track.

“It’s a demonstration of us listening to Queenslanders, but we are not focused on the polls, we are focused on listening to people and delivering,” she said.

“The Premier Steven Miles has been out there listening to Queenslanders, we’ve seen that with a whole range of actions in a very short period of time with freezing rego, freezing transport fares.

“We are listening to Queensanders on the issues that are important to them and we are focused on delivering for people regardless of what the polls say.”

Union involvement in Mr Miles’s premiership was also a key theme of respondents, and was characterised with words such as “puppet”.

Mr Crisafulli was seen by one respondent to seem to have “a good grasp on the issues facing Queensland”, but others described him as an “opportunist”, lightweight and “a bit soft”.

Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli, is preferred by male voters, according to recent polling.

Men prefer Mr Crisafulli while women prefer Mr Miles – both with a split of about 5 per cent.

In his first interview as premier, Mr Miles told The Sunday-Mail on December 17 winning a fourth term for Labor would be akin to conquering a challenge “taller than Everest”.

He has used the internal taxpayer-funded polling handed to Ms Palaszczuk on December 5 – five days before she quit as premier – as a blueprint for governing.

That polling revealed Queenslanders ranked cost of living, crime and housing as the top three challenges.

It prompted Mr Miles to establish an inquiry into supermarket price gouging, deliver a police helicopter for Townsville and release a $3bn housing plan.

The LNP, in response, is attempting to remind voters of Mr Miles’s role in Ms Palaszczuk’s nine-year government.

“He’s trying sadly to distance himself from a government that he was an essential part of … Steven Miles was Annastacia Palaszczuk’s right-hand man,” Shadow Attorney-General Tim Nicholls said.

“For the last three years he has been sitting right beside her every time a decision has been made.”

The two parties are stronger in southeast Queensland compared to the regions, with Labor’s city vote at 31.6 per cent while the LNP is at 34 per cent.

In regional Queensland the LNP’s 33 per cent vote leads Labor’s 27.4 per cent.

This month’s UComms polling also reveals a slight shift in the support for minor parties.

The Greens’ primary vote has fallen half-a-point to 11.3 per cent, but is strongest – at 21.9 per cent – among 18 to 34-year-olds and lowest – at 4.5 per cent – among over 65s.

Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has increased 0.2 per cent to 6.6 per cent while Katter’s Australia Party support is down 0.3 per cent to 3 per cent.