Inside the Palaszczuk government’s battle to save itself

The Premier’s chance of victory at the 2024 election will be destroyed if leadership speculation remains unresolved, with one minister saying “the status quo will kill us” while others say change would be catastrophic.

• Leadership not the ‘real’ issue

Annastacia Palaszczuk’s chance of victory at the October 2024 election will be destroyed if leadership speculation remains unresolved, but some ministers insist only a “ratf---er” MP would knife her as Premier.

Fears over Ms Palaszczuk’s drive to govern reached fever pitch last week after she escaped to Europe amid a chaotic week in parliament and a series of embarrassing political missteps.

It was the most tumultuous week for the government since being re-elected almost three years ago, and its next move could decide whether a fourth successive victory is to come next October.

One minister told The Sunday Mail the fortnight’s turmoil highlighted the need to turn things around.

“The status quo will kill us,” they said.

“It does feel like we are at a precipice … I think it’s become obvious this can’t drag on.”

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has endured a tumultuous week. Picture Lachie Millard

While at least a dozen Labor MPs have shared their private concerns about Ms Palaszczuk’s waning passion to be Premier, all have refused to pin their name beside the criticism.

Backbench Labor MPs say there is little anger or animosity towards the Premier in their electorates, with one declaring the “aura” around her among voters remains. “People still come up to her and want to meet her,” one said.

An indebtedness to Ms Palaszczuk for salvaging the party on January 31, 2015, from the brink of annihilation at the hands of Campbell Newman’s LNP 1043 days earlier is another significant factor keeping Labor MPs from seriously counting the numbers.

Notably, four of the five most marginal Labor seats were won at the 2020 election when Ms Palaszczuk was rewarded for her handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Ms Palaszczuk, the “accidental Premier” of 2015, has increased her governing majority at each election since – winning seats that were never held by Labor, such as Nicklin and Caloundra.

One minister, putting it bluntly, said she remained the golden goose for most MPs.

“What a ratf----r you’d be to knife the person responsible for your election,” they said.

Acting Premier Steven Miles. Picture: Liam Kidston

Members of parliament have a tendency to hold themselves in high regard, aspirational and keen to prove they hold the levers of power.

However, the real power over Ms Palaszczuk’s leadership lies with United Workers Union boss Gary “Blocker” Bullock, president of the caucus’s powerful Left faction.

Mr Bullock remains Queensland’s most powerful player, with this newspaper last year uncovering a badly held cabinet secret that rarely are decisions made without the question being asked: “What does Blocker think?”

Mr Bullock isn’t offering public commentary, but is acutely aware of the rumblings within the party.

Dire polling and political fires on all fronts are plaguing the government, but Ms Palaszczuk’s unique ability to fight back – albeit with a stroke of luck – is keeping the sense this could be Groundhog Day.

In August 2019, 14 months from the October 2020 election, The Courier-Mail noted Ms Palaszczuk was “on the verge of being toppled”, with exclusive polling revealing Labor had fallen behind the LNP on a two-party-preferred basis for the first time since May 2016.

Health Minister Shannon Fentiman has been touted as a possible successor. Picture Scott Powick

The emergence of a pandemic just six months later catapulted Ms Palaszczuk into people’s daily lives and elevated her to the status of a wartime premier.

Polling popularity quickly turned, giving Ms Palaszczuk an Anna Bligh-style natural disaster bump.

On drought and managing money – fringe issues compared to Covid-19 – a perfectly timed bout of heavy rain and then emergency measures in the pandemic allowed Ms Palaszczuk to escape tough decision making.

“The thing about the Premier is she seems to always be kissed on the arse by a fairy at the right time,” one minister said.

However, the joint appearance of an all-smiling Acting Premier Steven Miles and Health Minister Shannon Fentiman last Monday aroused suspicion that this time, the sharks are circling.

Telling was the intervention of Treasurer Cameron Dick with a 576-word election policy blueprint a thinly veiled reminder he is also in the contest.

However, the government’s best parliamentary brawler – who is known to sound out his stinging lines of attack with staff before directing the assault on the LNP – will fail to overcome the party’s majority Left faction.

Behind Ms Palaszczuk, Mr Dick is the most senior member of the Right faction. “Cameron has no chance of becoming leader, he’ll never get up,” one senior Labor MP said. “The closest he’ll come is when he’s acting premier.”

Behind Ms Palaszczuk, Treasurer Cameron Dick is the most senior member of the Right faction Picture: Michaela Harlow

Rumours of a deepening rift with Ms Palaszczuk also gained credibility last week when Mr Dick declared he did not know she was taking a holiday.

Ms Palaszczuk has a long and deep relationship with Mr Dick’s brother – federal Speaker Milton Dick – but her shock axing of Cameron Dick’s plan to tax property owners from interstate and offering little public support for his fight with the mining industry could have left the Treasurer, as one colleague believed, with a “chip on his shoulder”.

Who will lead Labor to the next election in just over a year remains under a cloud, but the likelihood is Ms Palaszczuk.

Experienced political campaigners, however, caution against Labor relying on good political fortune as strategy.

In the Palaszczuk government’s first term, between 2015 and 2017, 145 Bills passed the parliament, falling to 105 Bills passed in its second term between 2018 and 2020, and now 83 since 2020.

Mr Miles insists the government still has the drive and an agenda to reform Queensland, declaring any criticism to the contrary is simply wrong.

“I don’t think that criticism is at all fair,” he said.

However, when questioned what the government’s big-ticket priorities would be over the next 14 months before an election, Mr Miles cited a “series of long-term plans” already revealed.

“We have the long-term health and hospital plan for the first time locking in the capital program for Queensland hospitals,” he said.

“We have the renewable energy and jobs plan, no mean feat for a fossil fuel state like Queensland to plan its path to 70 per cent renewable energy by 2030 to 80 per cent by 2035.

“Recently, I released the new South East Queensland regional plan, mapping out where the population growth for our region will go out to 2046. They are all long-term plans for our state, all delivered this term and all would be put at risk by an LNP government.”

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