Greens to pose increasing threat to LNP, Labor at all levels as minor party surges

The Greens will be an increasing threat at both state and council levels, a political expert has warned, with analysis revealing new support for the party in multiple suburbs.

The rapidly expanding Queensland Greens will be an increasing threat at a state and council level a political expert has warned, with booth-by-booth vote analysis revealing growing support for the party in former blue-ribbon suburbs like Grange and The Gap.

One of the newly-elected MPs integral to the so-called “Greenslide”, Max Chandler-Mather, has also pointed out three Labor-held state seats already in the party’s sights for 2024.

Three Queensland seats have now been picked up by the Greens — Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith — with the party also adding a new Senator in Penny Allman-Payne, who will be based in Gladstone.

Greens MPs Max Chandler-Mather, Elizabeth Watson-Brown, and Stephen Bates take a selfie with fans Sam Woodman 24, and Julie Zhang 24, at Kangaroo Point. Picture Lachie Millard

In Brisbane a primary swing of 4.4 per cent toward the Greens’ Stephen Bates was enough to push the party over the line, with the candidates in Griffith and Ryan securing larger primary swings of 11 per cent and 9.9 per cent respectively.

Booth analysis shows the party picked up support in all places — to varying degrees — with the largest swings in Brisbane occurring in Teneriffe, Stafford West, New Farm and Gordon Park.

In Grange, where the median house price is $1.425m, the Greens secured a 5.8 per cent first preference swing.

In Griffith, Greens picked up a 14 per cent swing at a booth in Kangaroo Point, 17 per cent in Norman Park and 20 per cent in Holland Park East.

Newly-elected Griffith MP Max Chandler-Mather (middle) has revealed state seats the Greens have in their sights for 2024. Picture Lachie Millard

The vote for the LNP collapsed in the once blue-ribbon seat of Ryan, with the Greens picking up swings of 11.5 per cent at booths in Bardon, 12 per cent in Rainworth and 15 per cent in The Gap — where the median house price is $1.02m according to realestate.com.au

Booth data does not take in postal votes, absentee votes, or votes lodged via phone.

Mr Chandler-Mather, who helped orchestrate Cr Johnathan Sri’s election success in 2016, pointed to the seats of Cooper, Greenslopes and the CBD electorate of McConnel as future Greens target areas at a state level.

“We’re on track to win a bunch of new seats at the council and state election, as long as we keep doing the hard work. We’re not going to rest on our laurels,” he said.

“I think it’s abundantly clear that we only get outcomes when we do the hard work and people respond to that and respect that.

Griffith University political expert Professor John Mickel said the quadrupling of the Greens’ representation in Queensland federally posed a threat to the LNP on a Brisbane council level and Labor at a state level.

Griffith University political expert Professor John Mickel.

Locally, Cr Sri’s position would be “solidified” while Team Schrinner could be under threat in wards in the inner-west, central Brisbane and the Coorparoo ward on the southside.

Prof Mickel said the extra resources the Greens will get — in federal MP office space, staff members, and the boost in presence incumbency necessitates — helps shore up support in their state seats of Maiwar and South Brisbane.

But it would also put pressure on the LNP-held seat of Moggill, which overlaps the electorate of Ryan, and the LNP stronghold of Clayfield which overlaps with Brisbane federally.

The “Greenslide” would pose a further issue for Labor in the state seat of Cooper, where the Greens secured a swing of nearly 10 per cent in 2020, and the Brisbane CBD seat of McConnel which is increasingly becoming a three-cornered contest.

Prof Mickel said there was still analysis to be done on how much of the Greens’ success across Brisbane City was due to the lack of “teal” independents, on top of the “supremely organised” Griffith campaign and voter angst on government integrity among other issues.

“(The Greens) will be hard to dislodge now,” he said.

“It is the case historically, Bob Katter for example who has been quite untroubled, that independents hold on to their seats in Queensland.

“If they go out there and go hard and become the community voice they will hang on, there’s no doubt about that.”