Fears Labor ‘heartland’ will be lost to LNP in by-election upset

A defeat in the Ipswich West by-election on Saturday would strike a significant blow to Premier Steven Miles as he attempts to rebuild the government’s standing among Queenslanders.

Major political parties will blitz the Ipswich West electorate in the dying days of Saturday’s by-election campaign as Labor operatives grow increasingly concerned the safe seat could fall to the LNP.

A defeat in Labor’s heartland would be a significant blow to Premier Steven Miles as he attempts to rebuild the government’s standing amid compounding crime, cost of living and housing challenges across the state.

Labor Party sources are growing worried the government will struggle to hold Ipswich West, despite enjoying a 14.3 per cent two-party margin.

The lack of a Greens candidate will remove the usual preference flow to Labor, with the LNP expected to pick-up votes from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.

Premier Steven Miles. Picture: Liam Kidston

Crime and cost of living are likely to be the two major issues on Ipswich West voters’ minds as they head to the polls on Saturday for the first state by-election since June 2022. 

Mr Miles this month announced the Ipswich District would receive more than 40 extra police officers and 10 new cars to fight crime.

He has also promoted the government’s move to launch a parliamentary inquiry into supermarkets and called for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates.

Some 33.5 per cent of Ipswich West residents have a mortgage, 30.8 per cent rent and 23.7 per cent own their home outright, according to the latest Census data.

In a sign the government is concerned about losing the seat, it held a Cabinet meeting in Ipswich on February 19 and high-ranking ministers have swarmed the region to make several announcements.

Mr Miles made a $10m pledge to redevelop the North Ipswich Sport and Entertainment Precinct, home of the Ipswich Jets rugby league team.

Mr Miles is expected to be back in Ipswich West before the end of the week, with his cabinet spending Wednesday and Thursday in Rockhampton.

Outgoing Ipswich West MP Jim Madden.

Voters in Inala will also elect Annastacia Palaszczuk’s replacement on Saturday.

Inala is the safest seat in the state, held by Labor on a 28.2 per cent margin.

Labor is not expected to lose it, but Mr Miles will campaign in both the Inala and Ipswich West electorates on Saturday election day.

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli is expected to put a majority of his time and efforts into bolstering the LNP’s support in Ipswich West in the dying hours of the by-election campaign.

Mr Crisafulli will spend more of Friday in the battler electorate manning pre-poll booths and meeting with residents before splitting his time on the hustings between Inala and Ipswich West on Saturday.

Unlike the government, the Opposition has made no pledges or financial commitments, instead pushing voters to send a message to the government on crime and cost-of-living by booting them out of the electorate.

Deputy Opposition Leader said the voters of Inala and Ipswich West had the opportunity to “send Labor a message that they refuse to be taken for granted”.

He said the electorate “won’t put up with a government that expects their vote instead of earning it”.

“Given these electorates are Labor heartland, a swing of 3.5 per cent would be a strong result for the LNP,” he said.

Privately, however, the LNP is hoping for a swing significantly higher. 

Deputy Leader of the Opposition Jarrod Bleijie. Picture: Liam Kidston