Exclusive Redbridge-Accent polling reveals David Crisafulli fails to win over SEQ voters
Premier David Crisafulli trails Labor in Brisbane’s inner and outer suburbs despite his high profile crime crackdown and Games infrastructure promises, exclusive polling has revealed.
David Crisafulli has not gained ground with voters in South East Queensland in the year since taking office – particularly failing to win over Brisbane – despite his high-profile crackdown on youth crime and fixing Labor’s 2032 Games infrastructure mess.
The Premier has been warned he must make ground or risk trouble at the 2028 election after an exclusive Redbridge-Accent poll of 1013 voters for The Sunday Mail revealed Labor leads the LNP 52 to 48 per cent on the two-party-preferred vote in South East Queensland.
The polling comes as Mr Crisafulli prepares to mark a year since Queenslanders elected him on October 26, and just five months since federal Labor stormed to victory after picking up a slew of seats in Brisbane’s inner city and outer suburbs.
The LNP’s vote is softest in Brisbane’s inner city, where Labor’s primary vote of 38 per cent leads the LNP’s 34 per cent.
On the back of the Greens’ 14 per cent, preferences give Labor a 54 to 46 per cent lead over the LNP in the inner city.
The LNP also continues to trail Labor in Brisbane’s outer suburbs 53 per cent to 47 per cent on a two-party basis, which comes after it failed to win anticipated seats such as Aspley, Pine Rivers and Macalister at the 2024 election.
It sounds the alarm for the LNP that the region could further cement itself as a Labor stronghold, given Labor’s shock takeover of numerous seats during the federal election, including former opposition leader Peter Dutton’s electorate of Dickson north of Brisbane.
Redbridge director Kos Samaras said the LNP “absolutely must’’ do better in Brisbane or they could be in trouble in 2028.
Mr Samaras said the two-party-preferred vote for the LNP in South East Queensland at the election was 50.3 per cent but had now slumped to 48 per cent, mainly because of a doubling of support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON).
The LNP’s primary vote in the South East has also dropped, from 40.4 per cent at the election to 36 per cent in the latest poll, while Labor also lost ground – but not as much.
Ms Samaras said over time, Brisbane was becoming “increasingly separate from the rest of Queensland in terms of electoral behaviour”.
“The LNP will need to find a way to solve that problem because they cannot sustain a political future in this state unless they crack open that riddle,” he said.
“Brisbane over time is starting to look more like Sydney and Melbourne in its demographic makeup.”
Mr Crisafulli easily won last year’s state election through booming support in regional Queensland, but the LNP did not make anticipated inroads in Brisbane’s inner city or outer suburbs.
“The trend we saw on election night, where the LNP performed really well outside Brisbane, particularly southeastern Queensland, but then struggled in Brisbane proper, is continuing,’’ Mr Samaras said.
“It’s a manifestation of a much broader problem that conservative politics has in this country.
“What we are seeing in Brisbane we are also seeing to an extent in other cities like Sydney and Melbourne, where basically the parties of the left do better.”
But Mr Samaras said the shock poll suggested the LNP could be at risk of losing some regional seats in 2028 where One Nation performed strongly last year.
Although it did not win any seats, One Nation recorded a strong primary vote in a number of regional electorates such as Maryborough, which it won in the 1998 landslide to the party.
The polling – which does not consider the personal popularity of Mr Crisafulli and Opposition Leader Steven Miles – indicates the government is at a high water mark in the city and outer suburbs, where some 29 of the state’s 93 seats are based.
Of the almost 30 seats in and around the Brisbane city, the LNP holds just five and the rest, with the exception of the Greens’ Maiwar, are held by Labor.
But Mr Samaras said Labor was not seeing significant gains outside Brisbane.
He said while the Gold Coast remained a conservative stronghold, it was starting to drift to the Left.
In the first 12 months as Premier, Mr Crisafulli has not been afraid to go against the federal Coalition on climate issues such net zero and nuclear, while also steering clear of ideological issues to focus on policies that appeal to the majority of voters.
He has overhauled Brisbane’s Olympic and Paralympic Games infrastructure plan to deliver a new stadium and aquatic centre at Victoria Park, approved the private sector to build a new indoor arena next to the Gabba while also upgrading the RNA Showgrounds.
Mr Crisafulli has also focused on addressing youth crime, introducing adult crime, adult time policies and delivering a 6.5 per cent fall in statewide victim numbers.
However, despite Mr Crisafulli’s efforts on crime, ambulance ramping has not significantly improved and access to housing remains a struggle for Queenslanders.
Mr Miles has attacked the government’s integrity and culture of handing jobs to LNP mates.
The poll was undertaken before the state government released its Energy Road Map, which will plan a gas-led transition to renewables and burn coal for longer.
The polling also reveals an ongoing generational split between the LNP and Labor.
About 70 per cent of Generation Z voters – who would now be aged between 18 and 28 – favoured Labor over the LNP. Support for the LNP is strongest, at 63 per cent, among baby boomers – those born before 1964.
Health Minister Tim Nicholls, who holds the inner-city seat of Clayfield, said the polling results were unsurprising.
“I can tell you that winning seats in Brisbane is something that we know is hard work, and there’s no doubt that for a lengthy period of time, Brisbane has been a Labor stronghold,” he said.
“But it’s also been an LNP stronghold at the Brisbane City Council level for the better part of 20 years.
“So what do we need to do? We need to keep working hard.”
Mr Nicholls said the LNP needed to remain “resolutely focused” on delivering its four major election commitments; reducing crime victims, improving healthcare and housing accessibility and cost of living, if it wanted to gain Brisbane seats from Labor at the 2028 election.
“We know there’s a lot more work to be done, we know we need to work hard to gain the trust of Queenslanders, no matter where they are,” he said.
“I don’t think there’s anything overly surprising in what we saw this morning.”
Mr Nicholls is one of only four LNP MPs who cracked the Labor Brisbane fortress, alongside Tim Mander in Everton, Dr Christian Rowan in Moggill and Steve Minnikin in Chatsworth.
The LNP also holds outer electorates Capalaba, Oodgeroo and Redlands.
Shadow Treasurer Shannon Fentiman said the polling showed Brisbane voters didn’t like Mr Crisafulli.
“Who can be surprised by this, he has a litany of broken promises,” she said.
Ms Fentiman said the government was yet to fix the health crisis, housing and alleviate cost of living pressures for Queenslanders.
“And then just on Friday, we saw the Premier of Queensland make a joke in front of 600 people about a woman who had been stabbed in Victoria,” she said.
“It was so outrageous.”
