Dawson, Capricornia early voting: Exit poll reveals who might win election

We’re conducting our own exit poll for Dawson and Capricornia to give you the clearest view of who is might come out on top. Keep track here.

On the first day of voting for the seats of Dawson and Capricornia, the major parties racked up substantial vote totals and left the minors flopping in the dust.

In a one-day exit poll of 126 voters at the Mercury House booth in Mackay for the seat of Dawson, Labor’s Shane Hamilton eked out a narrow win over Nationals contender Andrew Willcox, nabbing 49 votes to Mr Willcox’s 46.

The closest minor party threat came from One Nation, which secured 15 votes.

Ciaron Paterson from Katter’s Australian Party scored seven votes, the Greens received six votes and the United Australia Party barely registered with a meagre three votes.

Though Mr Hamilton can claim a narrow victory on day one, Mackay tilts towards Labor and he will need to get more runs on the board at booths like Mercury House to balance against the booths in other parts of Dawson that boast a stronger LNP voter base.

The Burdekin Sports Club booth in the northern part of Dawson, for example, recorded a Willcox win.

The LNP received 47 votes to Labor’s 35.

And Mr Willcox, as Whitsunday Mayor, is likely to poll strongly across booths in his council area.

The minors also fared poorly in the Burdekin.

One Nation and KAP both received just a single vote each and the Greens nabbed three votes.

For Capricornia, meanwhile, day one at Mercury House suggested victory for incumbent MP Michelle Landry.

She nabbed 13 votes to Labor candidate Russell Robertson’s one vote.

The booth at the Rockhampton Showgrounds is more even.

Ms Landry is leading Mr Robertson 12-10, with the Greens in third position with three votes.

Mercury House registered substantial turnout on the day, with some voters waiting for more than an hour to cast a ballot.

The Daily Mercury plans to continue exit polling early voters in the lead up to the election to get an early indication of which way the seats of Dawson and Capricornia might fall.

Early voting has become increasingly popular over the past decade, especially since it was made more accessible during Covid.

About half a dozen voters admitted to casting donkey votes.

Others voted for reasons disconnected from policy or ideas.

One voter said she backed Mr Hamilton because her nephew had the same name.

“I like the name Shane,” she said.

“I have a nephew named Shane, so that’s who I voted for.”

Another voter said: “I just wanted to get my name ticked off.”

One or two voters admitted to forgetting who they voted for after walking out of the booth.

Trish said she voted for One Nation because she was not happy with how Australia was run right now.

She also expressed dissatisfaction with how the AEC organised the booth.

“We were lined up like cattle,” she complained.

>> Follow our nation-wide pre-poll results here