Labor struggling to make ground in must-win Queensland seats of Flynn and Longman

Labor’s bid to win a majority government has been dealt a blow with exclusive polling revealing the Coalition is likely to retain two must-win Queensland seats.

Labor appears to be failing to make inroads in regional and outer suburban Queensland, despite drastically reshaping its position on coal and religion, as new polling reveals the Coalition retaining a lead in two key seats.

Exclusive polling for The Courier-Mail shows the LNP is likely to retain the seats of Flynn and Longman, long ­considered the most likely Queensland electorates to change hands at the 2022 poll.

That will not be welcome news for Labor, which needs to win a net seven seats across the country to secure a majority government.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: Dan Peled

But billionaire Clive Palmer’s party could be a wildcard with its vote seemingly doubling from 2019, while Pauline Hanson’s One Nation retains a notable presence.

The TeleReach poll shows the LNPs primary vote is up in Flynn from 37 per cent to 42 per cent, while Labor has suffered a slight drop in its primary vote from 28.6 to 27 per cent.

In the outer suburban seat of Longman, Labor’s vote dropped from 34.1 per cent in 2019 to 29 per cent, while the LNP slumped slightly from 38.5 to 37 per cent.

The TeleReach poll numbers are better for the LNP than the internal polling done so far by both parties. It is understood both remain firmly in the Coalition’s corner.

The UAP appeared to hover up votes from both parties, increasing its support from 3.36 per cent to 9 per cent.

Opposition leader Anthony Albanese. Picture: Sarah Marshall

It leaves the LNP is a likely position to retain its most at risk seats in Queensland, but there continues to be talk in Labor about its chances in the seat of Brisbane.

Labor’s post-2019 election review found its campaign alienated Christians, coal towns, regional Queensland and low-paid workers and needed to “find a way to reconnect with Queenslanders” if it is to win the next election.

Opposition leader Anthony Albanese has spent significant time in Queensland, including visiting a coal mine, and shifted the party’s rhetoric on the future on coal industries.

But Labor is poised to seize the NSW seat of Reid and WA seat of Swan from the Coalition, according to the polling which looked at nine marginal seats across the country.

It also showed the Coalition were likely to hold on to the Tasmanian seat of Bass, while Chisholm in Victoria and Boothby in South Australia will be extremely close.

The UAP vote was much higher in the Queensland electorates, about eight per cent, compared to 3-4 per cent in the other states.

Opposition leader Anthony Albanese narrowly edged out Scott Morrison as preferred Prime Minister, but less than one-in-four voters were satisfied with his performance.

Mr Morrison has taken a battering, with 60 per cent of voters polled dissatisfied with his performance, compared to just 28 per cent satisfied and 12 per cent uncertain.

The polling was done from March 17-19 with samples of about 800 people per seat.