Has Covid-19 affected weather forecasts?

The science behind the reliability of our forecasting systems

Has anyone really noticed that weather predictions are not really up to scratch at the moment?

Well, I have.

Not long ago we were having virtually a week of rain that never really came.

The frog in my drain croaked loudly and mournfully and only a reasonably small amount of rainfall came one night in that long, long week.

 

Now I have been married for 45 years.

Please do no tell me that husbands are useless because out of the mouth of my husband came an amazing statement.

 

Before I state what it was I think I had voiced some of my pent up frustration of never becoming a meteorologist that in my youth I aspired to become.

Forecasts in the 50s were mainly hit and miss which I learned later that most predictions came about from lower atmospheric instrument readings.

Now, up to the present predictions became increasingly accurate until predictions were even exceptional in some instances.

 

I had noticed that this is not so true at the moment.

So my husband's statement was: "Weather forecasts are less reliable now because not many planes are flying and so very little information of upper atmospheric conditions are being received because of the advanced electronic equipment on aircraft these days."

And I thought "Wow, hubby dear, you are worth your weight in gold."

 

And this is what I found from Matthew Blackett, Coventry University, 13 May, 2020, The Conversation.

"Since 1998, the Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) system has collected data from 43 airlines, using devices on thousands of aircraft.

These aeroplanes continuously record air temperature and pressure, wind speed, turbulence and water vapour and relay this via radio or satellite."

Now by April 2020, flights had dropped by 61% worldwide.

So the airline industry was not the only casualty  of Covid-19.

 

In fact, as early as 5 November, 2019 (Reuters, Science and Health): "Scientists predict El Nino in 2020 based on earlier  warning method."

Now this was months before April and months before October with the airline collapse and tentative steps to slowly recover.

Now this dated article forecast in November 2019 that there was an 80% chance of in 2020 being an El Nino which occurs when sea-surface temperatures rise substantially above normal in the east-central Equatorial Pacific.

 

So what is happening at the present? At the end of last month (Doyle, K., "ABC Weather", 29/09/20, 3:11pm), "BOM declares a La Nina signalling wet Spring and Summer likely in northern, eastern Australia."

Also associated with this is increased chances of flooding or cyclones this Summer and the fire risk looking better than last year.

 

Now when I read statements such as, "Only time and science will determine the outcome", by E.Rowe (Letters to the Editor, "Covid War", 9/10/20) I would like to ask "Just what Science are you talking about?" because if by Science you mean unchanging truth then I suggest this may be closer to "Science so-called" as in 1 Timothy (6:19-21).

 

Glenda Carroll, Bundamba