Qld Election 2024: Bundaberg, Hervey Bay seats in doubt for Labor
All eyes will be on the Wide Bay Burnett’s north east next month when voters head to the polls for what is expected to be a state government shake-up. Read the latest polling results and the safety buffers each of the region’s seven MPs do or do not have.
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All eyes will be on the Wide Bay Burnett’s northern end at the state election with two Labor MPs at risk of being ousted amid expectations of a backlash against the incumbent Labor government.
The Bundaberg and Hervey Bay seats will be under a cloud for the next month as polls continue suggest a statewide swing against Labor on October 26.
Two new polls released in September, by Resolve Strategic and Redbridge Group Australia, reveal respondents have put the LNP Opposition ahead on the primary vote on a two-party preferred basis.
Resolve Strategic’s latest results put the ALP government’s primary support at 23 per cent, about 16 percentage points lower than the 39.6 per cent primary vote the party received at the 2020 state election.
In contrast Resolve’s poll put LNP primary support at 44 per cent.
This would be nine percentage points higher than it received at the 2020 polls.
Redbridge Group Australia’s polling paints a slightly rosier picture for the Labor government’s fortunes, but still not enough to stave off trouble.
The group’s latest polling figures showed a small increase in support for Labor, but to levels still well below what it received when re-elected in 2020.
Redbridge’s figures show the LNP two-party support across May to August was 54.4 per cent to 45.5 per cent.
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In comparison, Labor was returned to government in 2020 on a two-party preferred count of about 53 per cent, compared to 47 per cent for the LNP.
This would amount to a 7.45 per cent two-party preferred swing against Labor at the polls.
Redbridge director Kos Samaras said on Twitter after the poll’s release Labor’s position had improved “largely due to a very strong position along the Brisbane river”.
“Travel out further from that and it gets very, very ugly.”
The seat of Bundaberg, about 300km north of the Brisbane River, is the Labor Party’s most marginal seat.
MP Tom Smith holds the seat with a .01 per cent margin, thanks to a 4.2 per cent swing towards Labor which delivered Mr Smith a victory by nine votes after preferences.
The seat, which is so far being contested by strong LNP candidate Bree Watson, Independent Alan Corbett, and Legalise Cannabis Queensland’s Ian Zunker, has flip-flopped between Labor and the LNP since 2015.
About 100km south of Bundaberg, at Hervey Bay, MP Adrian Tantari’s chance of re-election is under a cloud too.
Mr Tantari holds the seat with a 2 per cent margin, delivered on the back of an 11 per cent swing towards the party in 2020.
The Hervey Bay seat had previously been held by the LNP since 2009.
Hervey Bay challengers at the October 2024 election include former councillor, LNP candidate David Lee, One Nation’s Quinn Hendry, Legalise Cannabis Queensland’s Jeff Knipe, and Family First’s James Milliner.
MP Bruce Saunders is the only other Labor member to hold a state seat across the Wide Bay Burnett, but he is likely to retain it in October thanks to an 11.9 per cent margin.
Even a swing against Labor in the electorate at the highest levels suggested in the latest polls would not unseat Mr Saunders.
The LNP’s least secure seat in the Wide Bay, still held by the party with a considerable 8.5 per cent margin, is at Gympie.
MP Tony Perrett has held the seat since 2015 and was re-elected in 2020 on an 8.5 per cent margin following a .2 per cent swing to Labor at the polls.
Labor’s Lachlan Anderson, One Nation’s Katy McCallum, and the Greens Emma Buhse are among those to have nominated to contest the Gympie seat in October.
At the other end of the scale, Callide’s LNP MP Bryson Head is the safest of the four having reclaimed the seat in 2020 with a 15.8 per cent margin.
To date his only challenger is One Nation’s Christopher O’Callaghan, with Labor still yet to announce a candidate.
Labor has not yet named a candidate at Burnett, where LNP MP Stephen Bennett holds the seat with a 10.8 per cent margin.
The seat has been held by the LNP since 2009, was a Nationals seat for five years beforehand, and only swung 0.1 per cent at the 2020 election – towards the LNP.
Nanango, held by LNP MP and former party leader Deb Frecklington, appears similarly safe with a 12.2 per cent margin.
Labor’s Vel Heward, One Adam Maslen, and Family First’s Benjamin Mitchell have nominated to fight for the South Burnett-based seat.
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