BOM speaks on rumours of monster 27m Gympie flood

The Bureau of Meteorology has outlined its take on the coming months’ forecast and the likelihood of a persistent rumour that Gympie will be inundated by a 27m flood later this year. This is what it said could happen.

Rumours of a monster flood in Gympie in late 2022 have been called “very unlikely” despite the region being in for some wetter than normal winter weather.

The rumour of a looming 27m Mary River flood has been persistently doing the rounds of the Gympie region thanks to social media outlets and gossip.

BOM meteorologist Shane Kennedy said on Friday any such event would be “very unlikely”.

Mr Kennedy said all of the region’s major historical floods had occurred between January and April.

While an expected negative Indian Ocean Dipole would mean Gympie residents could expect heavier than average rainfall later in 2022, he said, this forecast needed to be balanced against the reality that average was low given this was traditionally the driest time of the year.

BOM meteorologist Shane Kennedy said it was “very unlikely” any significant flooding would be experienced in Gympie in the coming months despite a wetter than average outlook. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Mr Kennedy said the three month average for August to October was about 140mm and there was a “50 per cent chance” of this year’s total across that period being about 200m.

In comparison, the region received 1043mm of rainfall in January to March 2022, when two of the year’s floods occurred.

All told, Mr Kennedy said there may be some minor flooding still to come but the region was “unlikely to see anything significant”.

Any flooding that did occur would be over “in a day or two”, he said.

A 27m flood would obliterate the February 1893 record of 25.45m.

Only the February 2022 flood and its peak of 22.96m has come within even 3m of equalling that mark, and 22m had only been reached one other time, in 1898.

The region has experienced a trio of flooding events in 2022, including one in January north of the city, the February disaster, and another flood in May.