Future SEQ: If we stop developing, our cities will die

A TREND of frighteningly small thinking and could result in Australian cities going from being some of most desirable in the world to some of the least competitive and least attractive, writes James Tuma.

WE LIVE in an urban age, an age where for the first time in history more people live in cities than outside of them.

This is a watershed moment for human kind and a major milestone for our greatest creation – our cities.

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Underpinning this mass migration mega trend are several factors. These include an increasingly highly educated and mobile global population, a level of technological connectivity and awareness that is unprecedented, and a desire to come together to share ideas, access capital markets, enjoy cultural pursuits and to generally exercise the main point of cities – to meet and to exchange.

Although some will have a different view, the facts are irrefutable – large cities continue to grow faster than their regional counterparts by all measures. This isn’t because of policy, it’s just that our major cities are where employment, educational and cultural opportunities are at their highest intensity and because of this, where people want to be.

Growth through natural population increase and domestic migration to our major cities, not immigration, puts obvious strain on established social and transport infrastructure but most significantly, its creates the need to evolve the shape and intensity of South East Queensland.

Large cities continue to grow faster than their regional counterparts by all measures.

Because of the insatiable appetite for all things that our major cities (and city regions such as SEQ) offer and the population growth attached to this, there is a groundswell in many communities that our towns and cities are full.

This is no surprise given the proximity of the idea of population growth to day to day issues for Australians. This theme of change is the underbelly of the “Big Australia’ debate, a national discussion that, from time to time, suggests we have reached our population limit and exceeded the carrying capacity of the continent.

This is frighteningly small thinking and could result in Australian cities going from being some of most desirable in the world to some of the least competitive and least attractive.

For example, it seems some believe that halting development, driving down density, and slowing growth will somehow cure the housing affordability crisis in Sydney, or congestion in Melbourne, or mitigate tall buildings in the inner suburbs of Brisbane. The truth is that not developing and investing will have entirely the opposite effect – exacerbating affordability and making the delivery of much needed infrastructure even harder.

The effects and challenges of growth are real, but the general diagnosis is all wrong, resulting in a desire to retain a low-density form to South East Queensland as a proxy for “quality of life” - but which has the impact of creating very expensive cities and regions to manage and run.

So, SEQ finds itself at somewhat of a crossroads, wanting to retain all of the great things about living in a low density leafy subtropical place, but also wanting to be relevant in a global sense.

We can have both, but it requires some change, and change can be hard – but doing nothing is not an option. It means coming to terms with how our towns and cities can preserve all the things we value about them, and by implication, all of things we feel can improve – and more pointedly, how we can provide housing and jobs by building differently.

Our low rise leafy suburbs are a wonderful asset and one of the key reasons we occupy relatively high rankings on global liveability indices, but this can’t be the only image of the city and the region in the future.

Without more density, we will quickly find ourselves with demand far outstripping supply of housing which in turn will drive an excruciating affordability and social equity crisis that will mean our children may be unlikely to ever be able to afford to live in places proximate to employment, education and essential services.

There is a perception issue here too. Some of us feel strongly that a high amenity city is one that is full of detached houses on big lots with a mango tree in the back yard. This is true for some – but importantly, not all.

Researcher James Tuma. Picture: Andrew Seymour

Younger people generally do not have the same definition of amenity, far preferring busy vibrant precincts, access to education and jobs, and proximity to entertainment. They are for the most part happily prepared to trade off the large house to live in far more dense places for the alternative amenity they provide.

Family values and the importance of the big backyard are often also rolled out as essential to the upbringing of our children in discussions about the shape of our region – as if children in New York, London and Tokyo are somehow less advantaged.

Whether there is a true desire for apartment living or an acceptance that a big house in the suburbs is now unattainable for many young people doesn’t matter, the outcome is the same.

So, how might Brisbane and SEQ look in the future? If one accepts that population growth and global market forces are not able to be denied, our wonderful part of the world must change.

It is entirely plausible to be able to retain large areas of what we know the region to be today – quiet communities, wide leafy streets, comfortable and generous housing for growing families, and an outdoor lifestyle the envy of our southern neighbours.

But there is a new SEQ too, one that is future-focussed, innovative, and that appeals to the next generation – a region of cities that is enlivened by taller and denser development, a place where jobs are closer to home because many more people live closer to the city centre.

A place that celebrates its climate, remains affordable, is supported by incredible public transport. A place that welcomes interstate and international migration, and that has grown a sense of energy and entrepreneurship that gives us a foot hold in the coming century, one that will be defined by cities that win, and cities that lose.

Change is hard, but ignoring the inevitability of population growth and the need for a much wider variety of housing and urban density will only result in unplanned outcomes. Far better we define clearly what it is we must preserve about SEQ, and then accept that by implication everything else is open for significant, wonderful, and positive change