Federal budget forecasts return of international travel

Federal Budget forecasts have revealed when a return to international travel could be on the cards.

International travel is unlikely to be on the cards for at least another year as federal government projections paint a bleak picture of the coronavirus recovery.

In economic forecasting sure to further deflate overseas holiday dreams, it is assumed that international travel – both inbound and outbound, will remain low until at least mid-2022 before the sector makes “a gradual recovery”.

The assumption is far less optimistic than the view of tourism leaders including Qantas, which hopes to be flying virtually all international routes by the end of October.

It means the freedom for international travel is expected to be limited to New Zealand and potentially COVID-free Pacific islands which could be added to the trans-Tasman bubble.

Other destinations, such as Singapore, South Korea or even Japan, are considered long shots to become declared Safe Travel Zones until at least next year.

The freedom for international travel is expected to be limited to New Zealand and potentially COVID-free Pacific islands which could be added to the trans-Tasman bubble.

Carefully-staged returns for international students are expected to resume later this year before numbers gradually increase next year.

The return of temporary and permanent migrants would not reach any significant numbers until at least 2022 while other international arrivals will also remain low due to quarantine caps, which are expected to remain in place until the middle of next year.

The opening of borders is seen as crucial for the recovery of parts of the tourism, agriculture and higher education industries.

The absence of migrant workers and international students is already being felt in the tourism sector, which relies on those groups to fill jobs, particularly in regional areas, in much the same way that agriculture relies on foreign workers for fruit picking and farm work.

The flip side of the forecasting is an extended period of strong domestic travel, with a return to the dark days of prolonged interstate border closures or restrictions considered unlikely as more of the population becomes vaccinated against the disease.

Qantas check in terminals at Sydney Airport. Picture: NCA NewsWire / James Gourley

That should lead to greater confidence for travellers to book interstate holidays, with Queensland in line to be one of the main beneficiaries.

Before the arrival of COVID, Queensland regularly finished third behind NSW and Victoria in tourism numbers, but the statistics for southern states were often boosted by international student numbers and business travel.

The much-maligned vaccination response is expected to finally kick into shape, with a “population-wide vaccination program” likely to be in place by the end of the year.

However, it is also assumed social distancing and hygiene practices will remain for the foreseeable future until deemed no longer necessary by health officials.