Cause for concern despite Queensland employment rebound
Queensland has already recorded the worst unemployment rate in the country and new figures have highlighted just how poorly the state is doing compared with the rest of the country, writes Michael Wray.
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Queensland recorded the second worst effective unemployment rate in the nation in July despite the economy recovering 100,000 of the jobs lost at the height of the COVID contraction.
New Treasury analysis of the effective unemployment rate shows Queensland’s rate fell in July to 11.4 per cent, but was still higher than every other jurisdiction besides the Northern Territory, which recorded 12.1 per cent.
Nationally, the rate, which includes people working zero hours and those who have left the labour force since March, dropped back to 9.9 per cent after hitting a peak of 14.9 per cent in April.
QLD unemployment worst in the country
Qld unemployment levels the worst in the country as 1 million Australians without work
Queensland’s rate peaked at 15.1 per cent in April, which was then only topped by NSW and SA, but has not rebounded as quickly as other states despite recovering nearly 40 per cent of the effective work force compared to March.
Earlier this month, Queensland recorded the worst official unemployment rate in the country after it jumped from 7.7 per cent to 8.8 per cent.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said Victoria had shown the road out of the coronavirus recession would be “bumpy” but the recovery in the rest of the country gave “cause for optimism” if the virus was contained and the economy reopened.
“Treasury estimates show that nearly 700,000 people have gained effective employment since April recovering more than half of the jobs lost or those who were stood down on zero hours at the start of the crisis,” he said.
“There is still a long way to go through this crisis and high frequency data is showing signs that the jobs recovery may be slowing as state border closures have been tightened.”
Treasury has predicted Victoria’s stage three and four lockdowns will push the national effective unemployment rate back above 13 per cent in the coming months.
The majority of the extra 450,000 people expected to join the effective unemployment queue in August and September will be in Victoria, according to the analysis.
The ACT’s effective unemployment rate of 5.2 per cent was the best in the country while NSW had recorded the strongest rebound, recovering 315,000 jobs and driving the rate down from 15.8 per cent in April to 8.5 per cent in July.
The improving labour market outside Victoria has also led to a decline in the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, which has fallen about 3 per cent below the May peak.
