Australia to buck the trend as global population peaks

New modelling shows the world isn’t doomed to overpopulation after all – but Australia will buck the trend once global numbers have peaked.

NEW population modelling shows the global population will peak in the year 2064 before declining, but Australia will buck the trend with migration continuing to fuel growth.

Social demographer Mark McCrindle has revealed that the dire forecasts of global overpopulation and food shortages are unlikely to eventuate, and there will be a challenge for many countries to attract migrants.

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“While many countries will see population declines as we approach the 2050s, Australia’s population, even with our slowing birthrate, will continue to increase through overseas migration,” he said.

The population expert said it was unlikely COVID-19 pandemic deaths would heavily impact population decline.

“The numbers are tragically large, but as a contributor to total deaths they are not comparable to the impacts of previous pandemics such as the Spanish flu,” he said.

“At nearly 600,000 deaths globally so far from COVID-19, these deaths account for about one per cent of the 60 million deaths annually.

“If the deaths from COVID-19 steady and slow during 2021, it will not have a marked impact on global population numbers, especially when the vast majority of these deaths, as in Australia, are of people past their child-bearing years.”

The declining population growth rates are linked to the falling birthrates and ageing populations of once-fast-growing countries.

By 2030, the median age in Japan will be 51, in Italy it will be 49, and in China it will be 41 compared with Australia’s 39, up from 38 currently.

A new report published in prestigious medical journal The Lancet predicts huge shifts in the structure of generations.

Generation Alpha, those born since 2010, will be the biggest globally within the next decade. They include four-year-olds (from left) Ariana Devine, Cameron McKelson, Lola Lawson and Connor Helling. Picture: Nigel Hallett

There will be an estimated 2.37 billion people over 65 years globally in 2100, compared with 1.7 billon under 20 years, underscoring the need for liberal immigration policies in countries with significantly declining working-age populations.

Mr McCrindle’s modelling shows that in Australia, within the next decade, Generation Z – those born from 1995 to 2009 – will be the largest.

“Globally the largest generation will be the younger Generation Alpha, born since 2010, who will comprise two billion people – nearly a quarter of the world’s population – compared to the Baby Boomers, who will then comprise less than 10 per cent or 836 million people globally,” Mr Mr McCrindle said.