QLD population boom: 250k people to flood housing market

Queensland’s population is set to surge as interstate migration puts further pressure on the state’s hot housing market.

Actress Nikki Osborne with her two sons, Teddy, 9, and Will, 13, who have recently moved to Queensland from Victoria to escape the lockdown restrictions and are looking to buy a house on the Sunshine Coast. Picture: Lachie Millard.

QUEENSLAND’S population is expected to surge by more than a quarter of a million people in the next four years according to forecasts in the federal budget, as people flood in from other states.

Treasury boffins have predicted Queensland is set to gain around 20,000 people from interstate each year for the next four years — amounting to almost 85,000 new residents by mid-2025.

Next year alone, Federal Treasury estimates see Queensland gaining 23,800 new interstate residents, while Victoria is set to lose 1200 and New South Wales is tipped to shed as many as 15,500.

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Queensland’s population is set to grow by 250,000 in the next four years. Picture: NCA NewsWire/ Luis Ascui.

It’s a trend demographer Simon Kuestenmacher of The Demographics Group says is beneficial amid the ongoing pause on overseas migration.

“International migration is expected to only kick into gear from 2024-25, so you need to grow your population base based on something else … and it turns out there is no coronavirus baby boom,” he said.

“I do think Queensland is in a healthy position (to benefit from interstate migration).”

Queensland’s population is predicted to hit 5.44m by mid-2025, up from 5.17m in June 2020.

The population increase will put further pressure on the state’s housing market.

The growth surge will benefit Queensland’s economy and GST slice but comes with pressures, particularly on infrastructure — which has struggled to keep up with demand — and the property market.

Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ) CEO Antonia Mercorella said interstate migration and rising property prices would continue to put “unprecedented pressure” on housing stock.

“With property sales in Queensland outpacing new listings, buyers continue to be out in force and ready to purchase property,” Ms Mercorella said. “However, sellers are still yet to match that burgeoning demand.”

REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella. Picture: Stewart McLean

“We’ve done remarkably well to maintain relatively stable property market conditions across Queensland throughout this pandemic, but these conditions won’t last if we don’t have more sellers back in the market and one way to do this is via downsizing.

“While the federal government’s reduction of the eligibility age to make (up to $300,000) downsizer contributions into superannuation from 65 to 60 years of age is an important starting point, more still needs to be done at all levels to effect meaningful change.”

Victorian refugee Nikita Osborne and her family needed little convincing that Queensland was the place to be when they packed up their lives and moved to the Sunshine State.

Not one to mince words, Ms Osborne cites Victoria’s premier as the main reason for relocating — and the chance to offer her kids the “Queensland dream”.

“Without sounding ghetto, the kids are out on the street playing until the street lights come on here,” Ms Osborne said. “They’re not going to be mugged or murdered by a gang!”

Many interstate migrants are flocking to lifestyle locations like the Sunshine Coast.

The actor and comedian is currently renting in Mooloolaba, but is looking to buy a family home on the Sunshine Coast after recently up and leaving their house on the Mornington Peninsula.

“It was the overreach. We didn’t mind the restrictions, but we had police lapping our street every night to make sure we didn’t gor for a walk,” she said. “We just said’ ‘nup, we’re out’.

“We started looking straight away, putting offers in, but they were already sold before the inspection — mostly to Sydney buyers sight unseen.

“Then we went; ‘this is silly, we’re going to wait’ and now we’re starting to look again.”

Ms Osborne said she was still tossing up whether to sell their home in Victoria or hold on to it.

“We’re torn,” she said. “Do we close the door on Victoria and buy our dream home up here or do we try and hold on to it and buy a more modest home up here in Buderim.

“If it’s our dream home, we’ll spend around $1.5 million to get something really nice. That will get us views out towards the water here, where as there (in Victoria) you’ll get a brick @#$%house in Keysborough.”

Actress Nikki Osbourne on the Sunshine Coast. Picture Lachie Millard

CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen said interstate migration and the normalisation of remote working combined with a desire to escape high density living would likely continue to help drive home price growth in some Queensland markets.

“Even pre-COVID, people saw the potential, and migration to those lifestyle markets has only amplified,” Ms Owen said.