Why the Currumbin by-election is a must-win for the LNP

It’s pretty clear, LNP leader Deb Frecklington must win Currumbin or face the prospect of a challenge to her leadership, writes Peter Gleeson.

IN July, 2018, the Longman by-election was held after the citizenship crisis sparked the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Susan Lamb.

It was a crucial by-election for both former PM Malcolm Turnbull and then Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, with polls suggesting it would be a close run thing. And as Shorten’s personal polling wavered, there was speculation that Anthony Albanese was doing the numbers should Labor lose Longman.

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As such, the ALP threw everything but the kitchen sink at winning Longman, dredging up the so-called medals scandal which put the nail into the coffin of the LNP”s Trevor Ruthenberg.

LNP Leader Deb Frecklington with Currumbin candidate Laura Gerber. Picture: Adam Head

The $500,000 spent in advertising in the final week didn’t hurt either. Labor knew if it lost Longman, Shorten was cooked. Lamb held on, only to lose it at the general election as an arrogant Labor pencilled Longman into the “certain win’’ column.

Fast-forward to the Currumbin by-election, due soon. There are striking similarities right now between Labor’s obsession with the Longman by-election and the LNP’s self-implosion on Currumbin. LNP leader Deb Frecklington must win Currumbin or face the prospect of a challenge.

The odds are stacked firmly in the LNP’s favour. Currumbin is leafy and beautiful with a well-heeled constituency, albeit many predisposed to the Greens way of thinking. Chardonnay socialists. A bit like Maiwar, the Brisbane seat based on Bardon, once a conservative stronghold, now represented by the Greens. But oppositions win by-elections, not governments.

Labor will do OK in Currumbin. It’s hard to see them winning, but expect Ms Palaszczuk to spend plenty of time there in coming weeks. She has nothing to lose. The LNP, on the other hand, must win Currumbin or face an electoral wipeout on October 31. With a rampant, vengeful Jann Stuckey unloading on the LNP, the pre-selection process and Ms Frecklington in particular, it’s game on. Throw in LNP candidate Laura Gerber’s national TV exposure on a show about bad drivers and you can see why some within the Tories are a tad nervous.

Stuckey brought forward her retirement to the least convenient date for the LNP and she’s been vocal, particularly after her preferred candidate, Chris Crawford, didn’t get the nod.

Let’s not forget that an Opposition hasn’t lost a seat in a by-election for 40 years. It usually gets a swing, And when you look at the track record of the Palaszczuk Government, with scandals and ministerial incompetence only trumped by Jackie Trad’s troubles, the Opposition should win easily.

But the LNP is rattled. They are not getting cut-through on major issues such as Queensland’s less than stellar economic performance, the fact unions are running construction and Jackie Trad’s housing dealings.

And when will the major political parties learn that maverick MPs must be cuddled, not scorned and met with derision? Labor’s Jo-Ann Miller was always going to go rogue after being treated so appallingly by senior Labor figures.

The same for Jann Stuckey. When Tim Nicholls booted her out of Cabinet she turned on the LNP. Stuckey loved being a Cabinet minister more than you could ever imagine, and losing that title – plus the salary and perks – was a dagger to the heart. Where was the leadership within the LNP to give her a soft landing? Where were her colleagues to cajole her into staying in her own lane?

Politics is about discipline and unity. The LNP have neither. And the big loser is Queensland, because we deserve better than a moribund Left-dominated State Government.

The next term is another four years in the political wilderness for the party that runs second.

Senior elders within the LNP have questioned Ms Frecklington’s recent personal attacks on the Premier. They say Trad is a much easier target. Ms Frecklington works hard and should never be under-estimated. For now, she enjoys the support of her partyroom, albeit with two less than when she started (Jason Costigan and Jann Stuckey). But Currumbin is her greatest challenge and the stakes have never been higher.