Watch in the coming weeks for the ‘real’ Jacinta Allan to emerge

For months there have been grumblings about problems with the Premier’s office but a recent move that slipped under the radar is considered a key step in a leadership challenge.

The resignation of Jacinta Allan’s chief of staff is a big deal.

It slipped under the radar on a sleepy Friday at the end of a parliamentary sitting week, but its significance should not be underestimated.

Matt Phelan will leave his post on March 21 – virtually midway between starting in the role 18 months ago and next year’s general election.

It is a move that shocked close observers of Victorian politics, if for nothing more than its abruptness.

Jacinta Allan’s chief of staff has resigned. Picture: Valeriu Campan

Why now? Why Phelan?

For more than a decade he has been a trusted confidant of the Premier, and has spent almost 20 years working for Labor.

Within the corridors of Treasury Place, he is regarded as a thoroughly decent, hardworking guy.

Since his announcement, not a single negative comment has been made public, if it’s been made at all. Which is what makes his pending departure so significant.

And it can be explained in the context of the leadership pressure facing the Premier.

It is a key step in the lead-up to a leadership challenge, as outlined by a senior federal politico who has asked to remain anonymous.

Ms Allan is facing leadership pressure. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

But their anatomy of a leadership coup has become legendary in political circles for its accuracy and applicability. Labor, Liberal, Greens, federal or state, it doesn’t matter. The coup goes something like this:

STAGE 1: The leader’s team isn’t up to it. Here we have early grumblings of dissatisfaction. It could be coming from MPs, staffers, party members. Wherever it’s coming from, it’s born out of an unhappiness that demands things just cannot keep going the way they are.

STAGE 2: It’s the chief of staff’s fault. This stage doesn’t necessarily have to put the chief of staff in the gun, but it’s the usual way, and we’ve seen it many times before.

For months before former Liberal leader Michael O’Brien was politically assassinated, his long-serving chief of staff Brett Hogan was blamed for the party’s failures. Blame can, of course, be apportioned to other senior advisers, but this is a direct shot across the bows intended to get a direct, and public, message to the leader. Crucially, as with stage 1, at this point criticisms can still be made without the fear of repercussions. We are not yet at the point of a declaration of internal warfare.

STAGE 3: The leader has to go back to being themselves. Here we have the first direct attack on the leader. Will the real Albo/Julia/ Dutton/Malcolm/ScoMo please stand up?

It might come with a new nickname, a hairstyle change, an increased social media presence. In this stage comes an acknowledgment that we are in troubled waters, and action is necessary.

STAGE 4: The leader is dragging the show down. OK, we’re no longer pulling any punches. It is all the leader’s fault and it is time for change. At this point, numbers have been counted, knives have been sharpened, and it’s merely a matter of time.

STAGE 5: I’m going to lose my seat if I don’t act immediately. Coup imminent, and no longer avoidable. The leadership will change. Minds cannot be changed at this point because it’s all about individual political survival.

Put within the context of this framework, Phelan’s pending exit takes on more meaning.

Now, the Premier’s office has vehemently insisted Phelan is leaving for personal reasons, to spend more time with his family.

It would border on the defamatory to suggest, as many inside Labor have, that he was asked to leave.

What’s undeniable is that for months now there have been grumblings about problems with the Premier’s office, prompted by record low polling.

While Phelan was not directly targeted (he’s a nice guy, remember), the buck stops with the chief of staff.

He may well be departing for family reasons, but there may, too, have been an element of a loyal servant falling on his sword and taking one for the team.

Which puts Allan, at a minimum, at stage 3. Watch in the coming weeks for the “real” Premier to emerge.

And watch, too, for her new chief of staff Diana Tremigliozzi to make significant changes to the Allan administration.

She’ll be doing all she can to avoid things moving to stage 4, and the irretrievable stage 5.

We should see a renewed focus on policy, slicker messaging and perhaps, finally, Allan emerging fully from the shadow of Daniel Andrews.

Originally published as Watch in the coming weeks for the ‘real’ Jacinta Allan to emerge