Tom Minear: Why Australia must tread softly with China

The Chinese Communist Party has little interest in mending bridges but provoking China will backfire politically and economically, writes Tom Minear.

How does Australia fix its relationship with China? The question has gripped Canberra for months. After this week, it seems almost redundant.

That’s not to say we should stop trying — our economic prosperity is at risk in this dispute — but the Chinese Communist Party has little interest in mending bridges.

Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian may as well have set fire to one on Monday, when he posted a horrific fake image to condemn the war crimes allegedly committed by Australian soldiers in Afghanistan.

Scott Morrison decided on his response — that the Chinese government should be “totally ashamed” of the “repugnant” post — within minutes, but it was a long time coming.

China’s mishandling of COVID-19, which sparked the pandemic, would have humbled most countries. Instead, Communist Party chiefs ramped up their aggression overseas, with Australia the prime target for coercion, interference and bullying.

Morrison had cautiously and consistently pledged to defend Australia’s interests, until Zhao’s post prodded him to take the gloves off. Was this the right call? Yes, but it was not without risk.

In the Chinese government apparatuses, Zhao is a relatively junior official, although his belligerent “wolf warrior” approach to foreign relations has quickly enhanced his reputation.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian. Picture: Getty Images

The furious response he provoked from Morrison was exactly what he wanted, and because it came from Australia’s leader — not a similarly ranked official — it boosted Zhao’s legitimacy. The strident rebuttal of Morrison that followed from China’s embassy showed Zhao’s attack, while likely not deliberately ordered, was sanctioned from the top.

The PM could not have avoided calling it out, especially on a parliamentary sitting day with Labor and his colleagues weighing in. But in dialling up his rhetoric so far, Morrison did not leave himself many options to go further next time. And there will be a next time.

Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade secretary Frances Adamson recently remarked “China may have reached a point where it believes that it can largely set the terms of its future engagement with the world”.

Zhao’s antics are indicative, as is China’s spurious crackdown on Australian exports. Our free trade agreement, as well as the rules-based trading system, seems inconsequential to the Communist Party. Australia needs China — China doesn’t need us.

Morrison must steer clear of an ongoing slanging match. On Tuesday, he wisely told colleagues to be steady, cautioning his criticisms did not need “further amplification”.

The conventional wisdom in Canberra is the relationship should be rebalanced on areas of mutual interest — particularly trade — if Australia can essentially agree to disagree with China on issues such as foreign interference and national security.

But this incident will not reset the relationship as Morrison hopes.

Chinese ministers have not returned calls from their Australian counterparts for months because they know that would give them what they want.

The other side of the coin is by China explicitly listing their grievances — from laws to cancel Victoria’s Belt and Road deal to our leadership on a global coronavirus inquiry — Morrison is even more certain in the threshold issues where he will not compromise.

Scott Morrison must steer clear of an ongoing slanging match with China. Picture: Adam Taylor

So what can be done to ease the tension and limit the economic fallout? This month’s cabinet reshuffle presents an opportunity, with Simon Birmingham’s promotion allowing Morrison to choose a new trade minister.

Some insiders suggest his best option is Dan Tehan, a regional Liberal who spent his pre-parliamentary life as a trade expert in the public service, political offices and the private sector. His experience and plain-spoken style would serve Australia well, while enabling the diplomatic dialogue to start afresh. Morrison should also ensure his colleagues follow his edict about cooling the rhetoric.

It is an uncomfortable truth that blatant China-bashing is popular among some voters. But it is incredibly inappropriate and will also backfire politically, given the economic impact further provoking China will have.

More broadly, Labor is right to push Morrison to diversify Australia’s export options, but the government is already working on that, and the opportunities offered by China will take years to replace.

Anthony Albanese and his colleagues joined with Morrison this week in condemning Zhao’s post. But the Labor leader could not resist blaming the government for having “presided over a complete breakdown of relationships”.

Prior to Zhao’s post, trade spokeswoman Madeleine King went further, saying she did not know “why we went first” in calling for a COVID-19 inquiry, and criticising the “Wolverines” — Labor and Liberal MPs with a common interest in standing up to China — as “childish”. Her comments exposed the intractable division within Labor on China.

While that is a problem for Albanese, it is also a problem for the country. Australia has a critical leadership role to play as a middle power, and defending what we value — democracy, human rights, a rules-based global order — is essential to that.

Exploiting differences is central to the Communist Party’s business model. We must not give them that chance.

Tom Minear is Herald Sun national politics editor

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Originally published as Tom Minear: Why Australia must tread softly with China