Tom Connell: What the Liberals need to do to regain relevance

The Liberal party has been flailing around since being turfed out under Scott Morrison, struggling to figure out which electorates it is supposed to be winning back. It’s time for them to focus on what’s important to the majority of the population.

The warning signs were there in Aston for keen students of Australian by-elections. An eerily similar set of circumstances confronted voters in the Brisbane seat of Griffith in early 2014. Kevin Rudd had just resigned – he wasn’t hanging around in opposition.

This time it was Alan Tudge. Both new governments were still fresh and scandal-free. But while the swing against labor in Griffith was 1.25%, allowing it to hang on to the seat, in Aston it was a savage 6.4%, handing labor a crucial 78th seat and a once-in-a-century government by-election triumph. And more Liberal party soul-searching.

Beyond the headlines, the result in Aston has party hard-heads wondering if they are any chance of getting back in to power in 2025. After losing seats to the so-called Teal independents in 2022 the focus turned to the outer suburbs – aspirational voters who are driven by hip-pocket concerns. Aston is seemingly right in that hitting zone, a mortgage belt seat straining under the weight of 10 interest rate increases in a year – 41% of voters there have a mortgage, versus 34% across Australia. Yet a seat the Liberals held by 10.1% before the last federal election is now red. So what happened?

Peter Dutton needs to lift the Liberals back to an electable position. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Some insiders point to candidate Rosheena Campbell being a drop-in from inner city Brunswick. Others maintain the party again lost big on the Chinese-Australian vote. But back-to-back swings imply deeper issues for the Liberal party.

One of those is the campaign machine, which is particularly broken in Victoria. research and messaging often misses the mark. Focus-groups were overly-relied on in the Morrison era, while Labor has tapped in to international experience and seemingly has a better hold on what voters respond to.

The party has been flailing around since being turfed out under Scott Morrison, struggling to figure out which electorates it is supposed to be winning back. Is it the eight Labor seats mostly in the suburbs or the six Teal and two Green seats they lost in and around the cities?

Some members say let’s tack left to ward off Teals, others want to tack right to sweep back up the quiet Australians. As one Liberal quipped to this column; it is not left / right, it is up / down. Whether people are getting ahead or falling behind.

Peter Dutton was trying to tap in to that when he was asked what his party’s direction is post-Aston, saying his was the party of Menzies. Considering its dire need to attract younger voters, perhaps a new line is needed.

The left / right line is instructive when thinking of where to now for the Liberal party. A dogmatic focus on it would lead to trying to always carve out a difference on climate change. Most voters care about climate change but these days would rather it be quietly sorted rather than punish one side of politics for its handling of it.

The Liberal Party has been flailing since being kicked out under Scott Morrison. Picture: Martin Ollman/Getty Images

A tattered Australian flag over parliament got a few headlines but I can’t imagine voters getting the baseball bats out over it.

Given the highwire act Labor will have to pull off to avoid economic turmoil, the Liberals should get back to their bread and butter. Focus on the economy, bring some political dare to tax reform, and make some tough decisions on spending to restart a debate on budget repair.

Remember too that Labor is facing its own problem.

The Greens only took one seat from Labor in the last Federal election, but went close in several more, and took the two from the LNP in Queensland that Labor was targeting. And the party is already fretting about the day Anthony Albanese and Tanya Plibersek can’t ward off the Greens in their own Sydney seats.

It presents an interesting dilemma for both major parties. Teals were only elected with the help of Labor running dead and Labor preferences. Greens candidates use the same path via the Liberal party. In other words both major parties are going down the path of mutually assured destruction, making a majority harder to achieve in federal parliament. Labor for now enjoys the whip hand, but with a primary vote of 32.5 per cent at the last election it remains vulnerable.

But for now the challenge is all on the Liberal side. Despite the big swing in Aston, Peter Dutton retains plenty of authority within the party, but he is now on the clock.

Tom Connell is the Chief Election Analyst of Sky News Australia

Originally published as Tom Connell: What the Liberals need to do to regain relevance