State election is Deb Frecklington’s race to lose

The odds might be shortening for an LNP victory at the upcoming state election, but punters need to be wary while leader Deb Frecklington’s own popularity continues to slump, writes Steven Wardill.

A HEARTY shout out to the brave punter who has wagered $15,000 on an LNP victory at the looming Queensland election.

Whoever this mystery person is, they’ve either got a lot more money than sense or know something that the rest of us don’t.

Possibly it’s a bit of both.

But our fearless punter friend isn’t alone when it comes to betting on an LNP win come October 31.

Online bookie Sportsbet reckons 85 per cent of its purse on the election is banking on an LNP victory, with the party’s odds shortening from $1.90 to $1.70 in recent days.

Labor has drifted out from $1.90 out to $2.20.

Poll Results: 76 per cent of readers want a new Opposition leader

YouGov poll: One in three Queenslanders backing minor parties

Editor’s View: Labor and LNP must end their race to the bottom

Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington continues to struggle with her own approval rating even as her party leads in the polls. Picture: Patrick Woods

Clearly, a lot of punters have tossed out the form guide when it comes to making a call on who they reckon will emerge victorious.

After all, the LNP and its previous incarnations have managed to win just a single Queensland election from their last 11 starts, if you don’t count Rob Borbidge falling over the line after the Mundingburra by-election in 1995.

Prior to that, the last time Queensland’s conservatives scored a win was Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s final victory in 1986 but even that was based on some pretty dubiously drawn electorate boundaries.

Nonetheless, the money is now flowing to the Deb Frecklington-led LNP team and very few are willing to wager on Annastacia Palaszczuk leading Labor to a third successive win.

More than a few of these punters probably parted with their hard-earned dollars following The Courier-Mail’s latest YouGov poll.

It showed Labor’s primary vote had shrivelled to just 32 per cent, a pathetic showing, while the LNP had improved to 38 per cent, still low by historical standards but somewhat respectable.

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor trailed the LNP 48 per cent to 52 per cent, its worst performance in four years.

However, the result certainly hasn’t got LNP types prematurely carving up the spoils of victory.

What is concerning more than a few of the party’s hardheads is Deb Frecklington’s lacklustre appeal with voters.

Just 23 per cent of Queenslanders rank Frecklington as their preferred premier which is lower than former LNP Leader Tim Nicholls before the 2017 election.

Her best result of 31 per cent came in the first poll after she was elected leader.

One figure has even compared Frecklington to former Federal Labor leader Bill Shorten.

However, this is far from an accurate comparison given voters were decided about Shorten one way or another while a massive 45 per cent remain undecided about Frecklington’s performance.

The danger for the LNP is that these voters must decide in coming months and if Frecklington hasn’t been able to shift the needle in her favour by now, how is she going to do it before the election?

While punters might be backing Frecklington with their cash, according to some LNP sources, the same cannot be said for the party’s deep-pocketed diehard donors who are being far more frugal.

“They’re just saying she’s not good enough,” one significant party figure reckoned this week. “So they aren’t writing the cheques.”

Also worrying for the LNP is new internal polling of Queensland’s 20 most marginal seats.

I’m told it showed the LNP primary was 35 per cent compared to Labor’s 32 per cent with a two party-preferred result of 50 per cent a piece.

Frecklington was a net negative of seven.

None of those numbers are terminal. They indicate that the LNP still has a chance despite Palaszczuk’s dominance of the political landscape during the coronavirus crisis.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk remains popular with voters despite Labor’s struggles. Picture: Matt Taylor

But it’s a long way from where many in the LNP believe they should be against the current government and where they want to be ahead of Queensland’s first four-year term.

The leadership chatter that’s occurring is all happening outside the LNP party room, for the time being.

But The Courier-Mail’s online poll this week of who should lead the LNP, which ambitious Broadwater MP David Crisafulli won convincingly, sure got some talking.

Some MPs were swapping the results, unaware this gave away who they voted for.

One suggested Crisafulli, the party’s tourism spokesman, probably suspended his well-publicised road trip up the Queensland coast so he could spend the afternoon voting for himself.

Many are still holding to the old adage that oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them.

And the bind that Palaszczuk has got her government into over the Queensland border closure and the public service pay freeze shows she’s very capable of stuffing it up.

But do this government’s many foibles guarantee victory for Queensland’s perennial election losers? Don’t bet on it.