Shannon Deery: The childcare crisis in Victoria could be the single issue that brings down the Allan government

Problems with the economy, health system and law and order won’t necessarily lead to a change of government next year. But childcare is different — and it could bring the Allan government undone, writes Shannon Deery.

Elections can turn on a single issue. For the Allan government, the childcare crisis engulfing the state could be what brings it undone.

True, myriad issues could prompt a voter backlash when Victorians get to choose the government that forms the state’s 60th parliament in November next year.

The economy, the health system, law and order and the state of the roads should all be potholes on a bumpy road to a historic fourth term.

The economy and health system were both major issues at the 2022 election, and the government was returned with an increased majority.

In 2018, the opposition campaigned hard on law and order, and failed miserably, with a post-election review finding that focus was ill-placed.

So given the history, take it for granted that those issues won’t necessarily lead to a change of government next year.

But childcare is different.

The childcare crisis could prove the breaking point for the Allan government. Picture: iStock

It goes to the very heart of what we expect from our governments: to keep us safe. And not just us, the most vulnerable of us who demand and deserve the highest standard of care.

The issue plays into many things, not least of those, economic concerns.

Families don’t enjoy the luxury any more of having one parent stay home.

That is because of both economic and housing pressures that require in the modern age two-income homes, which rests on the availability of safe childcare.

The fact that is largely a federal issue will make no difference when voters get their next chance to punish a government for massive failings across the childcare system.

If there was a federal election before next year’s state poll things might be different.

But there’s not, so the Allan government will face the brunt of a voter backlash from parents, grandparents and others, providing the issue is sustained as critical for the next 16 months.

Former prime minister John Howard lost his seat in 2007 after the public rejection of his WorkChoices reforms.

That’s where the opposition must be diligent and methodical in keeping it as a key part of its election campaign.

Take John Howard’s WorkChoices reforms. In the lead-up to the 2007 federal election, fears over job security and workers’ rights had reached boiling point. Labor and the union movement ran a masterful scare campaign, tapping into deep unease in suburban and regional Australia.

Howard not only lost government, he lost his seat.

Six years earlier Howard used the Tampa crisis and the shadow of September 11 to reframe the election around national security. The “children overboard” affair, despite being later discredited, played into a narrative of control and order.

For many voters, especially older Australians and first-generation migrants, it struck a chord.

Campbell Newman was dumped after one term over his privatisation plan.

In Queensland Campbell Newman, the once-invincible LNP Premier, was dumped after one term and sweeping to power with a staggering majority in a result few saw coming in 2015.

Why? A single issue again. The privatisation of major public assets and gutting of the public sector cut deeply and alienated the electorate.

East-West Link was key to Daniel Andrews’ success in 2014, and two decades earlier economic chaos and the collapse of the state bank underpinned the 1992 fall of the Kirner government.

Globally, the trend holds too.

In the UK, Brexit became the defining issue of a decade.

Boris Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” slogan captured a national mood, swept aside Labour strongholds, and redrew the British political map.

In the US, national security won George W. Bush re-election in 2004.

In 2020, it was Covid-19 and leadership failure that brought Donald Trump undone.

Melbourne childcare worker Joshua Brown allegedly abused eight children in his care aged between five-months and two-years-old. Picture Supplied

The childcare issue, highlighted by the recent issue of Joshua Brown who is alleged to have committed vile crimes on children, could haunt the Allan government.

This is a government that has put families first, and has since Jacinta Allan took over as Premier made families and children a centrepiece of its efforts. Yet it has failed dismally.

Victorian Labor has tried to use childcare reforms to boost its popularity with the “best start, best life” policy but has had to wind that back and slow down the rollout as it’s unachievable.

While it is focused on the announcement of new childcare goodies, it has been unable to regulate it properly to meet the most basic safety standards.

Brown’s alleged crimes are not the fault of the government. But they have exposed giant failings within the system that the government has been too slow to address.

Premier Jacinta Allan talks to the media following the public naming of accused pedophile Joshua Brown. Picture: David Crosling

Yes, it has promised another review, but parents sending their kids off to childcare while a review gets under way want immediate action.

Take the massive loophole that means alleged sex offenders working in childcare are not stripped of their Working With Children Check while under investigation, only once charged. That this has been exposed, but ignored, speaks of a dangerous complacency.

Victorians will want to see immediate moves to address such failures in the childcare system. Anything short of that would be a government begging to be punished when voters get the chance next year.

Shannon Deery is the Herald Sun’s state politics editor

Originally published as Shannon Deery: The childcare crisis in Victoria could be the single issue that brings down the Allan government