Shannon Deery: Lessons for Jacinta Allan, John Pesutto in Queensland election
Voters ditching Labor but not voting Liberal. Government’s failing on cost of living. There are plenty of lessons for Victoria’s political leaders in the Queensland election. Will they heed them?
Opinion
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For Victoria’s political leaders there is much that can be learned from the Queensland state election.
For Jacinta Allan and Labor, it is a reminder that both the it’s time factor, and crime, cannot be disregarded as significant factors in the minds of voters.
Relying on the rusted on support of heartland seats will no longer work, especially if voters feel Allan is not doing enough to address cost of living.
And straddling the city-country divide will also be an important play for Labor’s bid to hold onto office for a historic fourth term.
For John Pesutto, the election reinforced the trend of voters ditching Labor not necessarily translating to an uptick in support for the Liberal Party.
Instead, disaffected Labor voters turned to minor parties and independents to park their vote, while the collapse of One Nation boosted Queensland’s LNP.
A small target strategy is also a risky proposition — voters want to see leaders campaigning hard and earning their mandate.
The 2026 Victorian election presents herculean tasks for both Allan and Pesutto.
For Allan, she has to disassociate herself from her predecessor, and convince the electorate that she wants her own second term, not Labor’s fourth.
After 12 months in the top job she’s now started to strongly define her own agenda.
She wants to be the premier that gets millennials into homes, and within weeks will unveil a new economic statement aimed squarely at business.
Allan is now dominating the narrative on what are likely to be two election-defining issues: housing and the economy.
Labor is very much on the front foot, with pressure increasing on Pesutto to fast track the release of some policies.
Pesutto has long been working toward a 2025 release of key policies, and appears to be sticking to that plan.
Allan also has her government’s whopping majority — Labor holds 56 of the 88 seats in the lower house, the Coalition has 28 and the Greens have 4.
Not to mention the fact that over the past 30 years Victorian Labor has established itself as the natural party of government in this state.
But against that she is trailing in the polls for the first time in seven years, and is rightfully shouldering the blame for the state’s financial mess.
For Pesutto, David Crisafulli’s win will embolden his belief that he can lead the Victorian coalition to victory in 2026.
Crisafulli is on track to pick up 17 seats, the exact number Pesutto needs to win to earn a one-seat majority.
It’s a difficult, but doable, task.
In 1982 John Cain won 17 seats to beat Lindsay Thompson for the top job ending 27 years of Liberal government.
In 1992 Jeff Kennett won government from Joan Kirner, picking up 19 seats.
Steve Bracks picked up 20 in 2002 to win his second term in government.
Of course different factors underpinned those results: Liberal fatigue in 1982, a budget crisis in 1992 and roaring popularity of Bracks in 2002.
In 40 years, the Libs have won just three of 11 elections.
Just four times in their history have they won from opposition: Thomas Holway in 1947, Henry Bolte in 1955, Jeff Kennett in 1992 and Ted Baillieu in 2010.
What can Pesutto learn from Crisafulli?
The two have much in common beyond having both previously lost their seat in parliament and possessing self-belief matched only by work ethic.
They also share questions over their political judgment.
Crisafulli blew his massive lead over Labor with a detail-light small target strategy.
Pesutto doesn’t have the massive lead — he’s ahead on a two-party-preferred basis 51 to 49 — but he does have the small target strategy.
For now.
He has committed to unveiling significant policies including tax cuts next year, but until then is letting Labor run away with the political narrative.
While the government carpet bombs us with policy announcements, the opposition appears to be a policy free zone.
Crisafulli’s reluctance to engage with the abortion issue, which dominated the final weeks of the Queensland campaign, mirrors criticisms about Pesutto and his propensity to take too long to land on policy positions.
Think treaty, the Voice and nuclear gas.
Crisafulli also didn’t have the Moira Deeming baggage, he’s been running a tighter internal ship, and he had the support of both the State Division and federal leader Peter Dutton despite his criticisms of the small target strategy.
The ill discipline of a small number of MPs on the abortion issue was unhelpful, however, and may end up costing the LNP a couple of seats they otherwise might have won.
Crisafulli went into the election with an unassailable lead, but managed to lose a lot of that head start.
If not for such a high proportion of postal and early voters, the result might have been far closer.
Pesutto doesn’t enjoy the same lead.
For him it will take smart policy, leadership and determination to make all the difference.
Originally published as Shannon Deery: Lessons for Jacinta Allan, John Pesutto in Queensland election
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