Shannon Deery: Jacinta Allan should be more nervous than Albo as federal election looms

It’s no secret the premier hasn’t been seen alongside Albanese for weeks despite the PM making multiple visits to Victoria. Once the jewel in Labor’s crown, Allan’s Labor is now brand non grata.

With the starter’s gun fired on the federal election Jacinta Allan should be more nervous than Anthony Albanese.

Key state and federal Labor apparatchiks firmly believe that anything but a decisive win for Albo will spell the end of the Allan government.

The danger for Allan is that Labor cops a smashing in Victoria, and if that comes to pass she and her government will wear the blame.

There are plenty of reasons why Victorians might have turned on federal Labor.

But in the inevitable post mortem of May 3, it will be impossible to isolate those from how much voters were venting against Victorian Labor.

Premier Jacinta Allan should be more nervous than Anthony Albanese as the federal election looms. Picture: NewsWire

Since she took over as premier 18 months ago Labor’s polling has been in steady free fall.

The Werribee by-election saw 16 per cent from its primary vote – that result would lead to an electoral wipe-out in less safe seats.

The result spooked federal Labor types and prompted fresh talks about how Allan must urgently reset her agenda.

The Suburban Rail Loop was chief among concerns for many because it plays into so many of Victorian Labor’s issues, cutting across debt, cost of living, the union workforce and project management capabilities.

There are two groups among Labor – those that back the SRL and those that don’t.

Allan is firmly in the former and she is not for turning on the issue no matter who says it's a bad idea.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is well and truly into the thick of his federal election campaign trail. Picture: Jason Edwards

Most recently that was Infrastructure Australia, who have warned the benefits of the $34.5bn first stage of the project are overstated.

In doing so it effectively torpedoed further federal funding for the project, meaning the government is facing a minimum $9bn black hole to get it done.

Not that budget blowouts have concerned Victorian Labor during the decade its been in power.

Which is in part why the state is tracking towards $188bn of net debt by 2028, the highest in the nation and a quarter of the value of the state’s economy.

These are not the only issues plaguing Allan.

Pollsters say the electorate now has ingrained political views on her leadership, and they now can’t be changed.

Many see her as simply an extension of Daniel Andrews, despite the shifts in policy direction she has taken since becoming premier.

Focus groups have struggled to get Victorian participants to focus on the big picture, instead they just want to speak about Allan and this state.

Debt, crime, bail. cost of living and energy are all issues that many Victorians have blamed Allan over. Picture: NewsWire

Debt, crime, bail, cost of living and energy chief among the concerns of the electorate.

Housing is another issue plaguing the government despite efforts to address density concerns that are falling flat.

Not only is Allan blamed for each of the issues, the chief criticism is that she’s been either unable, or too slow, to adequately address them.

Try as she might, Allan has not yet been able to convince the bulk of Victorians that her government is doing enough to warrant a fourth term.

Combine voter fatigue with a 10 year government and a perception of the government being devoid of policy and voters will line up with their baseball bats.

Outside of by-elections, the federal election is the first chance they will have to come out swinging and send a message.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Jacinta Allan may very well be on the receiving end of a strong message of disapproval from Victorians in the upcoming election. Picture: NewsWire

It could work in the favour of the Victorians.

If voters get it off their chest now they may be less inclined to do so in November next year.

Given the government has a healthy 16-seat majority at a state level, they could realistically still sneak in a record fourth term.

But there is a general consensus that would be impossible if the status quo remains.

Federally, pollsters agree that a handful of key Victorian seats will decide the fate of the election.

There’s no secret why Allan has not been seen alongside Albanese for weeks despite the PM making multiple visits here.

Once the jewel in Labor’s crown under the might of the formidable Andrews, Allan’s Labor is now brand non grata.

Victoria’s Labor was once considered the jewel in the federal branch’s crown under Daniel Andrews leadership. Picture: NCA NewsWire

Which is why if federal Labor takes a battering on May 3 it will be Allan and Victorian Labor that will be blamed.

We’ve seen it before: dial back to 1990 when Labor lost nine federal seats in the dying days of the Cain government.

Labor lost almost five per cent of its primary vote from the 1987 election across the state, with Cain wearing the blame.

He resigned shortly after, and handed the reins to Joan Kirner.

She was wiped out in a landslide at the subsequent state election.

There is much to be learned from the past, and Allan would be nervous about history’s tendency to repeat itself.

Shannon Deery is the Herald Sun state politics editor

Originally published as Shannon Deery: Jacinta Allan should be more nervous than Albo as federal election looms