PM has ground to make up before poll - and a lot of it is in Qld

If an election were held today, opinion polling points to a Labor win. But not even Labor is willing to write off Scott Morrison and Queensland, as ever, will hold the keys to the Lodge, writes The Editor.

There is an interesting trivia quiz: Who is the first prime minister since John Howard in 2007 to have led their party to an election having survived a full term in parliament without being knifed by their own colleagues? All indications now suggest it is Scott Morrison – who has given a very strong indication that he plans to head to that election in May, either the 7th, 14th or 21st.

While there has been ongoing speculation in Canberra that a snap March election was on the cards, the revelation yesterday that the budget will be handed down on March 29 and not the usual second Tuesday in May has all put paid to that.

While a March date is still technically possible, government backbenchers have been increasingly making noises about May, particularly with the polls currently looking challenging for the Coalition. If an election were held today, opinion polling points to a Labor win – with the Opposition holding a healthy lead of 53-47 on a two-party preferred basis, according to Newspoll.

But not even Labor is willing to write off Scott Morrison, who is seen as a shrewd campaigner after his “miracle” win in 2019 built off the back of a leadership spill and bad polls – and a big-spending early budget, on that occasion brought down on April 2 ahead of polling day on May 18.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Prime Minister Morrison has made a few missteps recently. These have hurt his personal standing – and he has struggled to keep his Coalition party-room united in the maelstrom of questions over climate change, vaccine mandates and legislation over religious discrimination. It is not a stretch to say the Coalition he now leads is fractured, which is a bad place from which to head into a campaign. But Queensland – as ever – will hold the keys to the Lodge for both Prime Minister Morrison and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese.

Already holding 23 of the state’s 30 seats, the Coalition needs to be on the defensive and hold them all – or lose just one or two, while making up ground in western Sydney, to avoid falling into minority or losing the election.

Labor on the other hand will run a more targeted campaign this time, with a big push in particular for Flynn, Longman and Leichhardt.

Mr Morrison will also have to deal with the renewed popularity of Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Her handling of Covid has boosted her electoral stocks so strongly that this time she will be one of federal Labor’s not-so-secret weapons. Watch for them to deploy her.

But Labor has its own issues to deal with. Mr Albanese has been keeping his powder dry on policy – and consequently many voters are yet to form a view on who he is. This gives the Coalition an opening – to paint a picture of Mr Albanese for voters, unless he does so himself.

The strategy makes sense. Mr Albanese is clearly desperate not to repeat the mistakes of predecessor Bill Shorten, and so has been using a small-target strategy to avoid giving the Coalition a free kick.

But the approach has left some of his backbench nervous that he is leaving it too late, noting you can’t fatten a pig on market day.

Just as it did in 2019, the Morrison government will no doubt use the March 29 budget to splash the election sweeteners – to reframe the conversation and turn the polls in its favour. That means there is a strong possibility of tax cuts, which Labor will be forced to agree to.

Tax cuts after JobKeeper? Why not? After all, what’s a gazillion-dollar debt if you have already spent more than a mega-bagillion?