Paul Williams: Albo’s ratings fine now but wait until recession hits

The latest polls are sobering for the Coalition, even in loyal Queensland, where there’s been a massive turnaround since the federal election, writes Paul Williams.

Two statistics blew my mind this week.

First, there are apparently 20 quadrillion ants on planet Earth.

Second, it’s already 18 weeks – or a third of a year – since the May election that delivered Labor just its fourth federal victory in over 70 years.

In those four months we’ve had carbon emissions legislation, debates around a national integrity commission and a First Nations Voice to Parliament, the shock of the secret governing style of the former prime minister, and a change in the head of state.

Given we’ve hardly had time to catch our breath during those (approximately) 100 days, we can only ask one question: despite a happy honeymoon, is the romance finally over?

This week’s Resolve poll offers mixed findings for both major parties.

Who would have thought there were 20 quadrillion ants on Earth? Picture: iStock.

In good news for the Coalition, Labor’s primary vote has slipped three points to 39 per cent since last month, with Liberal and National party support growing four points to 32. That’s a steep movement, and pegging Labor’s vote to the 30s is essential to any hope of a Coalition victory in 2025.

That’s a decent result for a near-invisible opposition still licking its electoral wounds. Clearly, it is surging inflation and interest rates and stagnant wages that have taken the shine off Labor, not the Coalition or Opposition Leader Peter Dutton himself.

So is this buyer’s remorse from a jaded electorate?

Not really. In after-preference votes, Labor is still polling 57 per cent to the Coalition’s 43. That’s closer than the 61 to 39 per cent just a month ago, but far better than the 52 to 48 split last May. If an election were held tomorrow, Labor could pick up 20 extra seats, if only on the back of preferences.

In fact, the Albanese government is holding up pretty well compared to previous administrations.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Gary Ramage

According to a 2013 Nielsen poll, the Abbott Coalition government actually fell behind the Labor opposition – 48 to 52 per cent after-preferences – just four months into its first term. But Albo is no match for Kevin Rudd, whose government led the Coalition in every poll between 2007 and 2010.

No, the honeymoon is not over, but the romance does appear to be cooling. In terms of preferred prime minister, for example, Anthony Albanese leads Dutton by 25 points, 53 to 28 per cent.

But just a month ago Albo enjoyed 61 per cent support. Worse for Labor, “undecided” voters are moving toward Dutton faster than Albanese.

Even so, today there’s a 48-point gap in voters’ satisfaction of the two major party leaders. Where Albo enjoys a rating of plus 36 points, Dutton suffers one of minus-12.

The Coalition won’t be panicking just yet, but should this not improve by the end of next year a Liberal leadership spill will be inevitable.

It turns out that Albo is Labor’s fourth-most popular leader in 35 years. After Rudd, then Bob Hawke, then Kim Beazley (who, inexplicably, never won an election), Albanese ranks ahead of Paul Keating, Mark Latham, Julia Gillard and Bill Shorten.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: Getty Images

The same story is told in other metrics. Forty-one per cent declared Albo and Labor “competent”, with just 19 per cent similarly rating Dutton and the Coalition.

And 34 per cent said Albanese was “honest and trustworthy” compared to just 16 per cent citing Dutton.

The worrying fact is the huge number of voters who have no confidence in either side – a trend that will only boost the “teals” and others in coming months.

Not unexpectedly, Labor is still better respected on climate change (35 points to 14), with the Coalition still trusted more on national security and defence (34 points to 31).

Worryingly for the Coalition, Labor is now more trusted to manage the economy, 33 to 30 per cent. If the Coalition cannot reverse this number, there’s virtually no chance of regaining government in three years’ time.

The news for the Coalition is therefore sobering, even in loyal Queensland where Resolve polling found a massive turnaround since the election.

Where Labor won just 43 per cent after preferences in May, the party is now polling around 54 points.

So what can the Coalition do to make up ground?

Perhaps nothing. With the esteemed American economist Nouriel Roubini – who predicted the 2008 global financial crisis – forecasting a “long and ugly” global recession by year’s end, the Albanese government will have something far bigger to worry about than mere polls.

Oh, to be one of those nonchalant ants.

Paul Williams is an Associate Professor at Griffith University