Opinion: Today’s D-Day for challenger to strike and PM is powerless

IDEALLY, Peter Dutton needs to call a leadership spill today.If he doesn’t, it raises problems about whether he can steal the prime ministership without being framed by detractors.

IDEALLY, Peter Dutton needs to call a leadership spill today.

If he doesn’t, it raises problems about whether he can steal the prime ministership without being framed by detractors as Tony Abbott-esque, the former PM who has done nothing but snipe and background against the man who deposed him.

Parliament rises for two weeks from last night and Dutton needs to tread the fine line of not being an overt “wrecker” and continuing his unofficial election campaign.

Those close to Dutton say Turnbull’s leadership is “terminal” and was “mortally wounded” by winning Tuesday’s spill by 48-35.

Those close to Dutton say Turnbull’s leadership is “terminal” and was “mortally wounded” by winning Tuesday’s spill by 48-35. Picture: AP/Rod McGuirk

That was not a good win, no matter what frontbenchers Christopher Pyne and Julie Bishop say.

Last night, MPs were ready to circulate a petition to call on a leadership spill. That only happens when a challenger has the numbers.

Also, Dutton could also walk into Turnbull’s office and ask him to call it. If he doesn’t, he will look like he is holding on to power when he doesn’t have the numbers.

When there is this type of momentum, even more backbenchers will switch to support the challenger.

It is because most MPs want to side with the winner because there are promotions to be won.

Dutton will need just seven votes to topple the PM but if he can get his “blood brother” Finance Minister Mathias Cormann over the line – and Dutton supporters believe they can now that company tax cuts have been dumped – that it is all over for Turnbull.

The symbolism of losing Cormann would be devastating.

Questions are now turning to what Turnbull may do in deviance if he loses.

If he quits, the Government will lose a one-seat majority and force a by-election, likely handing the seats to The Greens.

Turnbull needs to consider what his legacy will be. The next few days could determine what is consigned to the history books.